미국-이란 협상 재개 기대감, PPI 데이터 및 주요 은행 실적 발표에 힘입어 선물 지수 상승

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are up +0.19%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are up +0.39% this morning as risk appetite improved and oil prices fell following reports that the U.S. and Iran were weighing another round of peace talks.

President Trump said on Monday that the “right people” in Iran still want to reach a deal, even though talks over the weekend concluded without an agreement. “We’ve been called by the other side, and they would like to make a deal very badly,” Mr Trump said. Bloomberg reported that the U.S. and Iran are discussing another round of negotiations aimed at extending the two-week ceasefire. The goal is to conduct new talks before the truce expires, the report added. Separately, Reuters reported that the sides could return to Islamabad for talks this week. The price of WTI crude fell over -2% on Tuesday.

Market participants are also awaiting crucial U.S. producer inflation data, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and earnings reports from some of the biggest U.S. banks.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed higher. Oracle (ORCL) jumped over +12% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the cloud platform provider unveiled new AI-driven enhancements for its Utilities Industry Suite and Aconex project management platform. Also, Sandisk (SNDK) surged more than +11% after Nasdaq announced that the stock would join the Nasdaq 100 Index on April 20th. In addition, Dell Technologies (DELL) climbed over +6%, and HP Inc. (HPQ) rose more than +5% on speculation that one PC maker may be in takeover talks with Nvidia. On the bearish side, Fastenal Co. (FAST) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company posted weaker-than-expected Q1 operating income.

Economic data released on Monday was negative for equities. U.S. existing home sales fell -3.6% m/m to a 9-month low of 3.98 million in March, weaker than expectations of 4.07 million.

“Investors are clearly exhausted by the [Middle East] conflict, and you can see it in how little the market reacts to bad news,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “The focus is starting to shift back to fundamentals, where earnings remain supportive, and with institutions already on the sidelines, there’s simply less left to sell.”

First-quarter corporate earnings season picks up steam, with investors awaiting reports today from major U.S. banks such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C), as well as high-profile companies like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and BlackRock (BLK). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +12% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index for March, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Similar to the CPI report, the wholesale inflation measure will reflect the jump in energy prices during the first month of the Middle East conflict. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. March PPI will stand at +1.1% m/m and +4.6% y/y, compared to the previous figures of +0.7% m/m and +3.4% y/y.

The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect March figures to be +0.4% m/m and +4.2% y/y, compared to +0.5% m/m and +3.9% y/y in February.

In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Fed Governor Michael Barr, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.5% chance of no rate change and a 0.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.29%, down -0.12%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +1.01% this morning, hitting a 1-month high on optimism over further peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, with investors largely brushing aside the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Sentiment improved as oil prices fell after both the U.S. and Iran signaled a possible return to negotiations, with reports suggesting talks could resume as early as this week. Technology and industrial stocks led the gains on Tuesday. Bank stocks also climbed. Final data released on Tuesday showed that Spain’s annual inflation rate was revised upward to 3.4% for March, as the Middle East conflict drove oil and gas prices sharply higher. Meanwhile, Eurozone government bond yields fell on Tuesday as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns. Elsewhere, the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings continue, with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde scheduled to speak today. In corporate news, Imperial Brands Plc (IMB.LN) sank over -7% after the tobacco company cautioned that the Middle East conflict could weigh on performance in the second half.

Spain’s CPI data was released today.

The Spanish March CPI rose +1.2% m/m and +3.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.0% m/m and +3.3% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.95%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +2.43%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as optimism over further negotiations between Iran and the U.S. lifted sentiment. China is prepared to play a constructive role in fostering peace and stability in the Gulf, Premier Li Qiang said, according to state media Xinhua News Agency. Semiconductor and other AI-related stocks jumped on Tuesday. Non-ferrous metal stocks also climbed. The equity rally came even as China’s exports showed signs of weakness in March. Customs data released on Tuesday showed that China’s export growth slowed sharply in March, indicating the Middle East conflict is dampening global demand and putting a key growth engine at risk. At the same time, China’s imports surged last month, bringing the country’s trade surplus to $51.13 billion, well below expectations. Trade between the U.S. and China continued to shrink, with Chinese exports to the U.S. dropping 26% in March. Pinpoint chief economist Zhiwei Zhang said China’s trade surplus is likely to shrink this year due to higher energy prices, adding that both the later timing of the Lunar New Year and the Middle East conflict weighed on March’s export figures. Elsewhere, London-based asset manager Eurizon SLJ Capital said on Tuesday that Chinese stocks are set to rise 10% by year-end as Beijing’s supportive policies fuel growth and valuations remain attractive. Investor focus now turns to China’s first-quarter GDP data, scheduled for release on Thursday, which will reveal how the economy performed during what has been a turbulent year so far. The nation’s retail sales, industrial production, and property investment data for March, due the same day, will indicate the degree of momentum heading into the second quarter.

The Chinese March Trade Balance stood at $51.13 billion, weaker than expectations of $107.2 billion.

The Chinese March Exports rose +2.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +8.3% y/y.

The Chinese March Imports rose +27.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +11.1% y/y.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher and hit a 6-week high today after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to resume negotiations with Iran. President Trump said Tehran had contacted Washington just hours after the U.S. imposed a naval blockade on Iranian oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell in Tokyo trading on signs that Washington and Tehran may resume peace talks, boosting appetite for risky assets. Japan is among the major economies most exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 90% of its oil imports pass. Chip and other AI-related stocks were among the biggest gainers on Tuesday as investors rotated back into the AI theme. Software and real estate stocks also climbed. Meanwhile, Citi analyst David T. Chew said on Tuesday that sentiment in the Nikkei was moving into mildly bullish territory, noting that gains in the benchmark index were fueled by new long positions. Elsewhere, Japanese government bond yields retreated from multi-decade highs on Tuesday after a 20-year sovereign bond auction attracted the strongest demand since 2019, as elevated yields lured investors and the government began its planned reductions in super-long issuance in the new fiscal year. Demand was also supported by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s cautious tone on Monday, as he kept his policy options open and tempered expectations of an interest rate hike later this month. Investors will also hear from Governor Ueda later this week, when he is set to hold a press briefing in Washington following the IMF and G20 meetings. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -8.46% to 29.32.

The Japanese February Industrial Production was revised upward to -2.0% m/m from the preliminary estimate of -2.1% m/m.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks edged higher in pre-market trading, led by more than +1% gains in Tesla (TSLA) and Microsoft (MSFT).

Chip stocks advanced in pre-market trading, with Micron Technology (MU) rising over +2% and Marvell Technology (MRVL) gaining more than +1%.

Bloom Energy (BE) soared over +13% in pre-market trading after the power-generation company announced a partnership with Oracle to support the expansion of AI and cloud-computing infrastructure. Oracle (ORCL) was up about +4%.

Credo Technology (CRDO) jumped over +15% in pre-market trading after the electrical cable provider agreed to acquire DustPhotonics for $750 million in cash and 920,000 shares of its common stock, as it seeks to become a dominant force in AI connectivity.

Globalstar (GSAT) surged more than +14% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported that Amazon.com was in advanced talks to acquire the company.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - April 14th

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), Citigroup (C), BlackRock (BLK), Albertsons Companies (ACI), CarMax (KMX), Nicolet Bankshares (NIC), Equity Bancshares (EQBK), TRX Gold (TRX), Gloo Holdings (GLOO), Bank7 (BSVN), Rent the Runway (RENT).

• On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com *