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The panelists generally agree that Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Planet Labs (PL) are overvalued and face significant execution, financing, and pricing risks, making them poor alternatives to a SpaceX IPO.
Ryzyko: Dilution due to financing needs for Neutron rocket development and launch costs, as well as potential obsolescence due to SpaceX's monopsony power and pricing influence.
Szansa: None explicitly stated by the panelists.
Key Points
SpaceX is rumored to go public at a huge valuation of over $1 trillion.
Rocket Lab is a smaller competitor that could offer more upside, along with Planet Labs.
Both stocks are risky buys today.
- 10 stocks we like better than Rocket Lab ›
The world may finally get a SpaceX IPO, and investors could not be more excited. In what could be the largest public funding round in history, SpaceX is expected to debut later this year at a market cap of $1.5 trillion-$1.75 trillion, which would put it in the top 10 most valuable companies in the world.
Any investor looking to buy SpaceX stock may run into a few issues, though. First, you are buying when private shareholders have already made billions in gains, with any upside likely capped by a starting market cap over $1 trillion. Second, SpaceX recently merged with xAI -- yes, Elon Musk likes the letter X -- to bring social media company X, its AI start-up, and the space flight giant under one corporate umbrella.
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This could be a problem if you want direct exposure to the space economy as an investor, as well as the risk of managing the two struggling companies that are now under the SpaceX umbrella. Instead, investors should hunt for pure-play space stocks with lower market caps.
Luckily, there are two stocks that fit this bill and can be added to investors' portfolios right now.
1. Rocket Lab's comprehensive offerings
First up: Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB). This company is one of SpaceX's true direct competitors, launching 21 rockets for commercial and government customers in 2025 alone. It currently operates a small rocket called the Electron, targeting customers who only need to deliver smaller payloads to orbit.
In addition to rocket launches, Rocket Lab also designs space systems for potential customers, including satellites and solar arrays. Solar arrays specifically could play a nice role in the space-based data centers growth market.
Rocket Lab's revenue has soared in recent years, rising to $602 million in 2025 from $62.2 million in 2021. It should continue to grow from the Electron and Space Systems segments, but is moving into other areas that could enable a step-change in growth opportunities.
This includes a new rocket called the Neutron, which will be much larger than the Electron and will compete more directly with SpaceX for launch contracts. It is taking a lot of up-front spending to develop, but it is slated to hopefully make its commercial debut in 2026. Next up is Rocket Lab building its own constellation of satellites to sell services to customers, similar to SpaceX's Starlink internet (although it doesn't have to just sell internet services).
2. Planet Labs' focus on surveillance
The second company, which is even more underfollowed than Rocket Lab, is Planet Labs (NYSE: PL). This company has built a constellation of satellites not to sell internet services, but to take continuous photos of the Earth from orbit.
Consistently building increasingly advanced capabilities -- along with using artificial intelligence (AI) for scanning -- has helped Planet Labs secure contracts for its imaging services. Last quarter, its revenue grew 33% year over year to $81 million, and it reported healthy free cash flow.
Customers worldwide are using Planet Labs, including for military applications in the United States. The company has signed deals with NASA, the United States Navy, and the United Nations, all of which have massive budgets and could benefit from Planet Lab's global monitoring capabilities.
The future looks bright for the business, with its backlog up 216% year over year last quarter to $734 million. Expect continued revenue growth for Planet Labs in the years ahead as it secures more of these long-term contracts.
These are all exciting businesses, but they do trade at considerable valuations. SpaceX would have a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of about 100 if it goes public at its rumored price, though adding xAI revenue may lower it a bit. Rocket Lab trades at a P/S ratio of 61, and Planet Labs at 26.5.
What could make Rocket Lab and Planet Labs better investments than SpaceX is their market caps. Rocket Lab has a market cap below $40 billion, and Planet Labs has a market cap below $10 billion. It doesn't make them risk-free investments, but they have a lot more upside than a stock like SpaceX if it comes out at a $1.5 trillion price at its IPO.
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Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Planet Labs PBC and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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"Smaller market cap is not a substitute for margin of safety; RKLB and PL are priced for near-perfect execution on unproven products, not for the execution risk that actually matters."
The article conflates 'smaller market cap = more upside' with investment merit, which is backwards. RKLB trades at 61x sales with $602M revenue—that's priced for flawless execution on Neutron (2026 debut, unproven), constellation buildout, and sustained 30%+ growth. PL at 26.5x sales is less egregious but still assumes backlog converts cleanly and defense budgets stay robust. The real risk: both are pre-profitability or barely profitable, burning cash on R&D. SpaceX at 100x sales is absurd, but that doesn't make 61x rational. Market cap size tells you nothing about risk-adjusted returns.
If Neutron launches successfully in 2026 and captures even 5-10% of the addressable market, RKLB's TAM expands 10x and current valuation looks cheap in hindsight—same logic that made early Nvidia buyers look prescient.
"The valuation multiples of 61x and 26.5x P/S for RKLB and PL are disconnected from the harsh reality of high-burn, capital-intensive space hardware development cycles."
The article's premise that Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Planet Labs (PL) are 'alternatives' to a SpaceX IPO is fundamentally flawed. SpaceX is a vertically integrated launch and satellite constellation powerhouse; RKLB is a launch provider attempting to scale, and PL is a data-as-a-service provider. Comparing them via Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratios of 61x or 26.5x ignores the massive capital expenditure (CapEx) required to reach orbit. RKLB's Neutron rocket is a 'bet-the-company' project with significant execution risk. While the upside potential in small-cap space is high, these are not substitutes for SpaceX's dominant market share and launch cadence. Investors should view these as speculative growth plays, not value-based alternatives.
If Rocket Lab successfully achieves high-cadence launches with the Neutron, it could capture the lucrative mid-market launch segment that SpaceX’s larger Falcon 9 and Starship may eventually over-serve, justifying its premium valuation.
"RKLB and PL are better pure plays than a pricey SpaceX IPO only if they execute flawlessly on capital projects and convert backlog into durable, profitable revenue — assumptions currently embedded in steep valuations."
The article correctly flags that Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Planet Labs (PL) give purer, smaller‑cap exposure to the booming space economy than a potentially trillion‑dollar SpaceX IPO, but it understates execution and valuation risk. Rocket Lab’s jump from small Electron launches to the much larger, capital‑intensive Neutron (targeted commercial debut 2026) requires flawless engineering, supply chains, and more financing; any slips mean dilution and lost market share to SpaceX. Planet’s backlog and fast revenue growth look promising, but imaging is a crowded, price‑sensitive market where contract backlog doesn’t guarantee margin expansion. Also, price‑to‑sales metrics (P/S 61 RKLB, 26.5 PL as cited) overstate comparability across very different business models.
If Rocket Lab successfully brings Neutron to market on schedule and captures mid‑sized commercial/government launches while Planet converts backlog into recurring, high‑margin imaging subscriptions (especially with defense customers), current multiples could compress materially and produce outsized returns.
"Article invents SpaceX merger claim while valuations (RKLB P/S 61, PL 26.5) embed flawless execution in a SpaceX-dominated market with proven delays and cash burn."
The article peddles RKLB and PL as SpaceX alternatives but starts with a whopper: no merger between SpaceX, xAI, or X (Twitter) exists—that's fabricated FUD to hype 'pure plays.' RKLB's $602M 2025 revenue projection (up from $62M in 2021) sounds explosive, but Neutron rocket delays (pushed from 2024) and ongoing losses amid $1B+ capex scream execution risk; P/S at 61 prices otherworldly growth. PL's 33% rev growth and $734M backlog are solid, yet P/S 26.5 ignores satellite imaging commoditization and defense contract lumpy risks. SpaceX crushes competitors on cost/scale—don't chase these at peak froth.
If Neutron launches on time in 2026 and captures mid-size payload market share while PL's AI-enhanced imaging locks in recurring gov't contracts, their sub-$50B combined caps offer 5-10x upside vs. SpaceX's trillion-dollar entry.
"Neutron's technical success doesn't matter if equity dilution to fund it destroys shareholder value before revenue scales."
Grok flags the merger fabrication—critical catch. But all panelists treat Neutron's 2026 debut as binary risk when the real issue is *financing*. RKLB needs $2B+ capex; at current burn and equity prices, dilution is near-certain. Even if Neutron launches, shareholders get watered down. Nobody's modeled the dilution math. That's the hidden execution risk beneath the P/S multiples.
"Without government-backed anchor contracts, RKLB and PL face inevitable dilution and pricing pressure from SpaceX's market dominance."
Anthropic is right about dilution, but ignores the 'SpaceX tax.' SpaceX isn't just a competitor; it's a monopsony that dictates launch pricing. If RKLB and PL don't secure long-term government 'anchor' contracts to offset Neutron's $2B+ CapEx, they won't just face dilution—they'll face obsolescence. Grok's point on imaging commoditization is the real killer; PL’s backlog is irrelevant if Starlink-integrated sensors make proprietary imaging a commodity. The risk isn't just execution; it's pricing power.
"Regulatory, range licensing, and insurance constraints are an underappreciated operational risk that can delay Neutron cadence and inflate RKLB/PL costs, independent of engineering or financing."
Nobody has flagged regulatory and insurance risk: FAA licensing, NEPA/environmental reviews, range slot scarcity, community opposition, and post-failure insurance premium spikes cancripple anticipated launch cadence. That’s material to RKLB’s Neutron economics and to PL’s constellation refresh cadence — delays raise burn, force more dilution, and reduce realized revenue even if tech works. This is an operational choke-point separate from engineering or backlog conversion.
"Neutron's success hinges on pre-committed medium-lift payloads, not just regs; current thin backlog risks idle capacity and burn acceleration."
OpenAI's regulatory/insurance risks are real but hardly unique—SpaceX endures them too, with RKLB's 50+ Electron launches showing competence. The overlooked chokepoint: Neutron's $2B+ capex needs firm medium-payload contracts *today* to avoid idle launches burning $300M+/year in fixed costs. Thin backlog there (per latest filings) amplifies Anthropic's dilution warning and Google's pricing fears into potential cash apocalypse.
Werdykt panelu
Osiągnięto konsensusThe panelists generally agree that Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Planet Labs (PL) are overvalued and face significant execution, financing, and pricing risks, making them poor alternatives to a SpaceX IPO.
None explicitly stated by the panelists.
Dilution due to financing needs for Neutron rocket development and launch costs, as well as potential obsolescence due to SpaceX's monopsony power and pricing influence.