Ropa na trzechtygodzinny szczyt, gdy porozumienia USA-Iran stają się zawieszone – aktualności biznesowe

Nafta at three-week high as US-Iran peace talks stall

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.

The new week begins with the oil price rising, again, as the stalled US-Iran peace talks threaten to extend disruption to crude supplies from the Middle East.

Brent crude has jumped around 2% this morning to a high of $107.97 a barrel, the highest level since the two sides agreed a ceasefire on 7 April.

Prices rose after DonaldTrump cancelled his plan to send US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for ceasefire talks in Pakistan on Saturday, saying “too much time” has been “wasted on traveling”.

The US president then doubled down on this position, telling Fox News:

“If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us.

You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines.”

However, there are signs of positive developments... Axios are reporting that Tehran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and end the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later date.

So, geopolitics will continue to dominate the markets, at the start of a Big Week, with several major central banks taking interest rates decisions in the days ahead.

As Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies, explains:

Talks have stalled between US and Iran as Iran has stated that it will not negotiate till the US blockade remains in place, while US has stated that it doesn’t know who it is negotiating with.

Our base case remains that we are moving towards a deal but tail risk of short term escalation remains. It is not in the interest of either parties to escalate further. The latest Iran proposal shows the wiliness of Iran to negotiate, while Trump already wants a deal. Hence, we believe that we will eventually move towards a deal, but with some speed bumps along the way.

The agenda

11am BST: CBI distributive trades survey of UK retail

Predicted house price growth in UK halved due to Middle East conflict

UK estate agent Knight Frank has halved its house price growth predictions for this year, citing the economic shocks caused by the Iran conflict.

KnightFrank now expects UK house price growth of 1.5% this year, down from a forecast of 3% last September. Growth is then expected to rise to 3% in 2027, down fro 4% before.

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at KnightFrank, says:

The Middle East conflict has pushed mortgage rates higher, dampened buyer sentiment and fuelled speculation about how the government will respond to the resulting economic shock.

This hat-trick of headwinds means we have revised down our near-term house price forecasts.

Nafta at three-week high as US-Iran peace talks stall

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.

The new week begins with the oil price rising, again, as the stalled US-Iran peace talks threaten to extend disruption to crude supplies from the Middle East.

Brent crude has jumped around 2% this morning to a high of $107.97 a barrel, the highest level since the two sides agreed a ceasefire on 7 April.

Prices rose after DonaldTrump cancelled his plan to send US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for ceasefire talks in Pakistan on Saturday, saying “too much time” has been “wasted on traveling”.

The US president then doubled down on this position, telling Fox News:

“If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us.

You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines.”

However, there are signs of positive developments... Axios are reporting that Tehran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and end the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later date.

So, geopolitics will continue to dominate the markets, at the start of a Big Week, with several major central banks taking interest rates decisions in the days ahead.

As Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies, explains:

Talks have stalled between US and Iran as Iran has stated that it will not negotiate till the US blockade remains in place, while US has stated that it doesn’t know who it is negotiating with.

Our base case remains that we are moving towards a deal but tail risk of short term escalation remains. It is not in the interest of either parties to escalate further. The latest Iran proposal shows the wiliness of Iran to negotiate, while Trump already wants a deal. Hence, we believe that we will eventually move towards a deal, but with some speed bumps along the way.

The agenda

11am BST: CBI distributive trades survey of UK retail