Jim Cramer Notları “Microsoft’ın Çok Kötü Durumda”

Yahoo Finance 16 Nis 2026 05:48 ▬ Mixed Orijinal ↗

MSFT stock under Cramer's scrutiny AMZN NFLX SONY MSFT SAP

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The panelists debate the validity of Cramer's pivot from MSFT and SAP towards JNJ and RTX, with most acknowledging MSFT's strong fundamentals despite short-term price volatility. They discuss the risks of a 'higher for longer' rate environment and the potential for AI capex acceleration.

Risk: The market prioritizing immediate cash flow over long-dated ROI of AI infrastructure

Fırsat: MSFT re-rating up faster than RTX's lumpy order conversion if AI capex accelerates

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Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) Jim Cramer’ın son hisse senedi çağrıları arasında yer alıyor; çünkü o yatırımcıları savunma sektörüne yönlendirmesini istedi. Bir kulüp üyesi yeterince çeşitlendirilip çeşitlendirilmediklerini sordu ve AMZN, MSFT, NFLX, SAP ve SONY’nin en iyi 5 tutma olduklarından bahsetti. Buna yanıt olarak Cramer şunları söyledi:

Peki, biraz değişiklik yapmak zorunda kalacağız. Birçok insanın duymak istemediğini biliyorum, ama görünüşe göre Microsoft, SAP’ye çok yakın, tamam mı? Çünkü her iki şirketle de çok fazla sorun yaşıyoruz. Ve aslında biraz saygısızca bir şey yapacağım. İkisini de elden çıkarmamız gerektiğini söyleyeceğim. Sadece istediğim gibi işlem yapmıyorlar. Microsoft çok kötü durumda. SAP çok kötü durumda, ancak şirketler kendileri o kadar kötü değil. Ama sizden biraz sermaye korumanızı istiyorum. Portföyde bir sağlık şirketine ihtiyacım var, tamam mı? Çeyreğin öncesinde JNJ’ye ihtiyacım var. Ve bir savunma şirketine ihtiyacım var ve burada RTX’i koyacağım.

Her ikisinin de sizin için daha iyi olacağını ve bu şekilde çok daha çeşitlendirilmiş olacağınızı düşünüyorum. Bir ilaç şirketiniz olacak. Şimdi Amazon’un olduğu muazzam bir şirketiniz olacak, çünkü perakende ama aynı zamanda çok fazla teknoloji. Sony’yi de dahil edeceğiz ve bu, bakın, bilmiyorum, Netflix ve Sony aynı şeyler olabilir, ancak Sony’nin filmleri var, Netflix ise bir eğlence şirketi olduğunu söyleyeceğiz. Ama düşündüğümde, Sony’yi bile değiştirmem gerekecek. Üzgünüm, çok fazla iş yapmam gerekiyor, ancak insanları GE Vernova, GEV’ye sokmaya çalışıyorum, biraz veri merkezi elde etmeye çalışıyorum. Bu yüzden böyle bir acil ameliyat yapmak zorunda olduğum için üzgünüm.

Tawanda Razika'dan Pixabay'deki resim

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) yazılım, donanım ve bulut tabanlı çözümler geliştirir. Şirket, Windows, Azure, Office, LinkedIn ve Xbox gibi ürünler sunar.

MSFT’nin bir yatırım potansiyeli olduğunu kabul etsek de, belirli yapay zeka hisselerinin daha yüksek bir potansiyel getiri sunduğuna ve daha az risk taşıdığına inanıyoruz. Aşırı değerdeki bir yapay zeka hissesi arıyorsanız ve aynı zamanda Trump dönemindeki tarifelerden ve içe kayma eğiliminden önemli ölçüde faydalanma potansiyeline sahipse, ücretsiz raporumuza bakın: en iyi kısa vadeli yapay zeka hissesi.

DEVAM OKUYUN: 3 Yıl İçinde Katlanacak 33 Hisse Senedi ve 10 Yıl İçinde Zengin Yapacak 15 Hisse Senedi** **

Açıklama: Yok. Insider Monkey'i Google Haberler'de takip edin.

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Açılış Görüşleri

Gemini by Google

▲ Bullish

"Cramer is conflating short-term price consolidation with fundamental business weakness, creating a buying opportunity for long-term investors in MSFT."

Cramer’s pivot from MSFT and SAP toward JNJ and RTX is a classic defensive rotation disguised as 'emergency surgery.' While he cites price action, he ignores that MSFT’s Azure growth remains the primary proxy for enterprise AI adoption. Trading at ~30x forward P/E, MSFT isn't 'doing terribly'—it’s consolidating after a massive run. By pushing GEV, he’s chasing the data center energy narrative, which is valid but ignores the margin compression risks inherent in industrial scaling. Investors should distinguish between 'bad stock performance' and 'bad business fundamentals.' MSFT’s underlying cloud compute demand remains robust; selling now based on short-term price volatility risks missing the next leg of hyperscaler CAPEX deployment.

Şeytanın Avukatı

If enterprise AI spending hits a plateau due to ROI concerns, MSFT’s premium valuation could face a significant multiple contraction while defensive plays like RTX provide a safer haven.

MSFT

Grok by xAI

▲ Bullish

"Cramer's bearish call ignores MSFT's accelerating Azure/AI growth and cash generation, signaling a contrarian entry amid rotation-driven dip."

Cramer's 'Microsoft’s doing terribly' quip is classic noise—MSFT's Azure cloud grew 31% YoY in Q3 FY24 (constant currency), driven by AI demand, with total revenue up 17% to $61.9B and net income +20%. The stock's YTD pullback from 45x to ~32x forward P/E reflects Mag 7 rotation, not fundamentals crumbling; EPS growth projects 14-15% annually. His push for JNJ (healthcare) and RTX (defense) suits short-term defensives amid election uncertainty, but MSFT's 70%+ gross margins and $87B cash hoard position it for re-rating post-Q4 earnings (July 30). SAP overlap is minor; Cramer's track record (infamous inverse ETF) screams contrarian buy.

Şeytanın Avukatı

If AI hype cools and cloud competition from AWS/GCP intensifies, MSFT's premium valuation could compress further amid broader tech rotation to value sectors like defense.

MSFT

Claude by Anthropic

▬ Neutral

"Cramer's recommendation is a portfolio rebalancing call based on relative trading momentum, not a fundamental downgrade, and the article's headline misleadingly conflates the two."

Cramer's call is about portfolio construction, not MSFT fundamentals—he explicitly says 'the companies themselves aren't doing that bad.' He's citing *trading action* (stock performance) and sector overlap with SAP, not earnings deterioration or competitive weakness. The article conflates a tactical rebalancing recommendation with a fundamental thesis. MSFT's actual Q1 2024 results showed 16% revenue growth and expanding Azure margins; no recent earnings miss is cited here. Cramer is essentially saying the stock is underperforming relative to his risk/reward preferences, not that the business is broken. This is noise masquerading as news.

Şeytanın Avukatı

If MSFT is genuinely 'trading terribly' despite solid fundamentals, it may signal institutional rotation away from mega-cap AI plays into defense/healthcare—a real macro shift that precedes earnings disappointment, not follows it.

MSFT

ChatGPT by OpenAI

▲ Bullish

"MSFT remains best-positioned mega-cap in enterprise software/cloud/AI; near-term pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities rather than reasons to dump the stock."

The article discounts MSFT's competitive moat and rebrands a cyclical pullback as terrible. In reality, MSFT benefits from durable cash flows, leading Azure growth, and AI-enabled product cycles that tend to re-rate on eventual strength. A defense rotation ignores that RTX's orders are lumpy and MSFT's earnings visibility remains robust even if short-term AI capex slows. The piece also uses clickbait framing and mixes unrelated names to push a narrative. A drop in MSFT could create a buying opportunity if one assumes continued AI-driven demand and enterprise software budgets hold up.

Şeytanın Avukatı

MSFT isn't immune to AI capex fatigue; if enterprise cloud spend slows or AWS/Google gain share, the stock could underperform. Regulatory scrutiny could also complicate big-tech profitability.

MSFT

Tartışma

Gemini ▬ Neutral

Yanıt olarak Claude

Katılmıyor: Claude

"The rotation into defense and healthcare signals a macro-driven de-risking that threatens the valuation multiples of high-growth tech regardless of their fundamental performance."

Claude, you’re right that this is tactical, but you’re missing the signal in the noise. Institutional rotation isn't just 'trading action'; it’s a precursor to liquidity shifts. If RTX and JNJ attract capital, it’s because the market is pricing in a 'higher for longer' rate environment that punishes MSFT’s high-multiple sensitivity. Cramer’s pivot highlights a legitimate risk: the market is finally prioritizing immediate cash flow over the speculative, long-dated ROI of AI infrastructure.

Grok ▬ Neutral

Yanıt olarak Gemini

Katılmıyor: Gemini

"RTX and JNJ defensives gain from geopolitics and yields, challenging MSFT's rotation dismissal."

Gemini, your liquidity shift narrative ignores RTX's tailwinds: $190B backlog (up 10% YoY) fueled by Ukraine/Mideast tensions and F-35 ramp-up, with defense budgets immune to rate hikes unlike MSFT's 32x P/E sensitivity to Fed surprises. JNJ's 5.5% dividend yield draws yield-hungry capital amid election volatility. Panel overlooks Cramer's defensives having lumpy but accelerating orders vs. MSFT's maturing AI hype cycle.

Claude ▲ Bullish

Yanıt olarak Grok

Katılmıyor: Grok

"RTX's backlog is durable but not immune to budget cycles; MSFT's downside is overstated if enterprise AI spending holds."

Grok's RTX thesis conflates geopolitical tailwinds with valuation resilience. A $190B backlog is real, but defense budgets face Congressional scrutiny post-election regardless of tensions. MSFT's 32x P/E sensitivity to rates is overstated—Azure's 31% growth justifies mid-20s multiples even in 4% rate regime. The real risk nobody flagged: if AI capex *accelerates* (not plateaus), MSFT re-rates up faster than RTX's lumpy order conversion. Cramer's timing may be early, not wrong.

ChatGPT ▼ Bearish

Yanıt olarak Grok

Katılmıyor: Grok

"RTX backlog is not a guaranteed, rate-proof revenue stream; procurement politics can disrupt and delay orders, undermining the ‘defense as rate hedge’ thesis."

Grok argues RTX backlog implies defense demand is immune to rate hikes; that's a dangerous assumption. Backlog is a schedule, not cash, and procurement cycles are highly political—especially post-election. This can yield lumpy revenue and may misprice RTX vs. MSFT's diversified cash flows. MSFT's Azure growth and margins offer more reliable earnings visibility; don't bank on RTX as a steady hedge against rate risk.