Bởi Maksym Misichenko · CNBC ·
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The panel discusses the 'de-dollarization' trend, with non-U.S. family offices diversifying into EM equities, infrastructure, and gold due to geopolitical risks and dollar concerns. However, U.S. family offices maintain a high allocation to U.S. assets, suggesting limited immediate pressure on the dollar. The key risk flagged is geopolitical uncertainty, while the key opportunity lies in emerging markets and gold.
Rủi ro: geopolitical uncertainty
Cơ hội: emerging markets and gold
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Family offices are planning the biggest changes to their portfolios in years, with many moving money out of the U.S., according to a new survey.
Fully 60% of family offices plan to make strategic changes to their investment allocation in the next year – about twice the level of the past five years, according to the UBS Global Family Office Report. Among those making changes, many are trimming their U.S. holdings and adding to emerging markets.
Globally, North America is the only region where family offices plan to reduce their allocation in the next 12 months. They plan to add in Latin America and Africa, they said.
"Last year, all of the family offices were super concerned about global trade tariffs tensions," said John Mathews, UBS head of private wealth management for the Americas. "Today it's really shifted to geopolitical tensions around the world, global debt, and now interest rates. And not just the short-term implications, but the longer-term implications of these as well."
The pullback reflects a broader shift away from the U.S. by family offices, the private investment arms of the wealthiest families. America's highly concentrated stock market and fears of an AI bubble, tariffs, a falling dollar, volatile economic policies and rising debt and bond yields have caused many family offices to dial back their U.S. exposure and spread more of their money around the world.
Advisors caution that it's not a wholesale "sell America" trade. Rather, international family offices want to be more diversified geographically as global crises grow.
The wars in Ukraine and Iran, changing tariffs, immigration and debt battles have all made the world a more complicated investing landscape. With no real safe haven, the best strategy is to balance risks across the world.
The new catchphrase in family office investing is "jurisdictional diversification," spreading money in multiple countries to hedge risk. Two thirds of family offices now have their bankable assets in at least three jurisdictions, according to the UBS survey. Nearly a third have them in at least four jurisdictions, including Latin America, the U.S., China, Europe, the Middle East and Asia.
A chief goal among family offices is to reduce their U.S. dollar exposure, or what some are calling "de-dollarization." More than a quarter of family offices plan to lower their holdings of U.S. dollar-denominated assets, according to the UBS survey. Two thirds of family offices said they expect confidence in the U.S. dollar's reserve role to fall, and nearly half said they are overexposed to the dollar.
The Swiss franc and the euro are the preferred currencies for diversification, according to the survey.
Family offices said the No. 1 risk in the next 12 months — as well as in the next five years — is geopolitical uncertainty, according to the survey. The second-ranked risk was a global trade war. Hyperinflation, cyberattacks and debt crises were also cited as high risks.
"These forces point to preparation not just for near term volatility, but for an extended period of elevated and interconnected risk," according to the survey. "Family offices look to be focused on building resilience across a broader and more complex risk landscape, combining adjustments to their asset allocation with multishoring strategies."
Family offices plan to add to their emerging market equities, as well as their infrastructure and gold investments, the survey found. They plan to reduce their cash slightly as well as their real estate holdings.
There is a large and growing divergence between family offices in the U.S. and those overseas, however. U.S. family offices are happy to stay concentrated at home, reporting that they increased their share of assets in the U.S. over the past year, from 86% to 88% on average.
North America also accounts for the bulk of global family investments, with 53% of all global family assets.
Yet non-U.S. family offices are bringing more money back to their home countries or to other non-U.S. markets. Chinese family offices now have half their assets invested in Western Europe, for instance. Western European family offices have 41% of their assets in their home region, according to the survey.
The U.S. family offices have actually kind of doubled down," Mathews said. "But all the other family offices around the world are now diversifying out of the dollar-denominated securities, out of the U.S. a little bit."
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"U.S. family offices' increased domestic concentration likely offsets much of the reported overseas pullback from dollar assets."
The UBS survey highlights non-U.S. family offices trimming North American exposure amid geopolitical risks, dollar concerns, and a push into EM equities, infrastructure, and gold. Yet this shift is asymmetric: U.S. family offices, which hold 53% of global family assets, raised their domestic allocation from 86% to 88%. The 'de-dollarization' trade therefore rests on a smaller base of overseas offices, while two-thirds of surveyed entities still cite geopolitical uncertainty as the top risk over five years. Advisors explicitly frame moves as modest diversification rather than outright exits, suggesting limited immediate pressure on U.S. equities or the dollar.
If overseas family offices accelerate reallocation faster than modeled, even a modest percentage of the $53% North American pool could still pressure USD assets and valuations, especially if Chinese or European offices scale Western Europe holdings further.
"The article's 'de-dollarization' thesis is overstated; U.S. family offices control majority global assets and are increasing U.S. exposure, which structurally supports USD and U.S. equities unless that reverses."
The article conflates two distinct phenomena and overstates the 'de-dollarization' signal. Yes, non-U.S. family offices are rebalancing—but U.S. family offices (which control 53% of global family assets) are *increasing* U.S. allocation from 86% to 88%. That's the real money. The 60% planning changes is notable, but the article never quantifies actual capital flows—only intentions. 'De-dollarization' among non-U.S. offices could reflect home-country bias or regional recovery (Latin America, Africa) rather than dollar weakness. The strongest risk signal is geopolitical uncertainty ranking #1, which typically *increases* dollar demand as a safe haven, not decreases it.
If U.S. family offices are genuinely doubling down while international offices flee, that's a massive red flag about U.S. exceptionalism being priced in—and any disappointment (recession, policy shock, debt spiral) could trigger violent reallocation when U.S. offices finally capitulate.
"The move away from U.S. assets is a tactical valuation rotation rather than a structural abandonment of the dollar's reserve status."
The shift toward 'jurisdictional diversification' is less about a fundamental collapse of U.S. hegemony and more about a rational response to extreme valuation concentration. With the S&P 500 trading at a forward P/E of roughly 21x, family offices are likely rotating into emerging markets to capture valuation arbitrage rather than fleeing the dollar. However, the 'de-dollarization' narrative is often overstated; the U.S. remains the only market with the liquidity and legal infrastructure to absorb massive capital flows. While diversifying into gold and infrastructure is prudent, the persistent 88% U.S. allocation among domestic family offices suggests that sophisticated capital still views the U.S. as the 'cleanest shirt in the laundry' during geopolitical instability.
The 'de-dollarization' trend could accelerate if U.S. fiscal deficits continue to expand, forcing the Federal Reserve into yield curve control that effectively debases the currency, rendering the current valuation premium of U.S. equities irrelevant.
"De-dollarization in this survey reads as tactical diversification, not a durable macro shift away from the dollar; USD-based assets remain the anchor for global private wealth."
The UBS survey signals willingness to rebalance, not a wholesale 'de-dollarization' crash. While 60% plan strategic changes and non-U.S. offices diversify across three–four jurisdictions, North America is the only region reducing exposure; U.S. assets still dominate (53% globally, 88% for U.S. offices). The rhetoric of currency hedging and ‘jurisdictional diversification’ reads as risk management and liquidity optimization, not a secular exodus. Near-term flows may tilt toward EM and gold, but a durable USD reversal would require a sustained policy regime shift and attractive non-U.S. relative returns. Don’t mistake tactical rebalancing for a lasting shift in global capital markets.
Counterpoint: the emphasis on lowering USD-denominated assets could signal a structural reweighting away from the dollar, not merely hedging; if non-U.S. assets outperform for an extended period, the shift could become self-reinforcing.
"Non-U.S. offices are already cutting NA exposure despite geo risks topping the survey, undermining the dollar safe-haven assumption."
Claude assumes geopolitical uncertainty will boost dollar demand as a safe haven, yet the survey shows non-U.S. offices already trimming North American exposure while ranking that risk first. This disconnect suggests the safe-haven premium is eroding in real time rather than reinforcing USD holdings. If overseas reallocations into EM and gold continue, any U.S. fiscal shock could accelerate the very outflows U.S. offices have so far ignored.
"Survey responses reveal risk awareness, not capital conviction; performance will determine whether diversification sticks or reverts."
Grok conflates survey intent with realized flows. Non-U.S. offices ranking geopolitical risk #1 while *still* holding 86%+ in North America suggests safe-haven logic is intact—they're hedging, not fleeing. The real test: do EM allocations actually outperform over 12-24 months? If they underperform, this rebalancing reverses fast. We're watching stated preferences, not committed capital yet.
"The shift toward gold and infrastructure is a structural hedge against USD debasement that ignores the 'safe haven' narrative."
Claude and Gemini are ignoring the fiscal transmission mechanism. It is not about 'safe haven' status or 'cleanest shirt' rhetoric; it is about the sustainability of the U.S. deficit. When family offices shift into gold and infrastructure, they are signaling a lack of faith in the long-term real yield of USD-denominated assets. This is not tactical hedging—it is a structural hedge against future debasement that the U.S. domestic 88% allocation is currently failing to price in.
"Without funded, durable capital shifts away from USD, rebalancing is tactical noise, not a secular pivot."
Gemini overplays the fiscal/debasement narrative without showing realized flows. The real hinge is whether non-U.S. offices convert intentions into durable outflows; until then, the USD can stay bid on liquidity and policy risk. A structural de-dollarization would need credible non-dollar settlement, not just EM/gold bets. Key claim: without persistent, funded capital shifts away from USD, 60% of offices rebalancing remains tactical noise, not a secular pivot.
The panel discusses the 'de-dollarization' trend, with non-U.S. family offices diversifying into EM equities, infrastructure, and gold due to geopolitical risks and dollar concerns. However, U.S. family offices maintain a high allocation to U.S. assets, suggesting limited immediate pressure on the dollar. The key risk flagged is geopolitical uncertainty, while the key opportunity lies in emerging markets and gold.
emerging markets and gold
geopolitical uncertainty