ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. - Common Stock

NASDAQ · Health Care · 在 SEC EDGAR 上查看 ↗
$443.73
价格 · 五月 20, 2026
截至...的财报数据 四月 22, 2026

ISRG 股票快照 价格、市值、P/E、EPS、ROE、负债/权益、52周范围

价格
$443.73
市值
$201.11B
P/E (TTM)
72.0
每股收益 (TTM)
$7.87
营收 (TTM)
$10.06B
股息收益率
ROE
16.7%
负债/权益
52周区间
$418 – $604

ISRG 股价图表 包含技术指标的日 OHLCV — 平移、缩放和自定义您的视图

10年表现 收入、净利润、利润率和每股收益趋势

营收与净利润 $10.06B
10-point trend, +271.9%
2016-12-31 2025-12-31
EPS $7.87
10-point trend, +25.7%
2016-12-31 2025-12-31
自由现金流 $2.49B
10-point trend, +151.8%
2016-12-31 2025-12-31
利润率 28.4%
10-point trend, -5.6%
2016-12-31 2025-12-31

估值 P/E、P/S、P/B、EV/EBITDA 比率 — 该股票是昂贵还是便宜?

指标
5年趋势
ISRG
同行中位数
P/E (TTM)
5-point trend, -6.7%
72.0
15.7
P/S (TTM) (市销率 (TTM))
5-point trend, -11.2%
20.0
23.9
P/B (市净率)
5-point trend, +4.5%
11.3
3.4
Price / FCF (股价/自由现金流)
5-point trend, +9.1%
80.7

盈利能力 毛利率、营业利润率和净利率;股本回报率 (ROE)、资产回报率 (ROA)、投入资本回报率 (ROIC)

指标
5年趋势
ISRG
同行中位数
Gross Margin (毛利率)
5-point trend, -4.8%
66.0%
47.4%
Operating Margin (营业利润率)
5-point trend, -8.2%
29.3%
Net Profit Margin (净利润率)
5-point trend, -4.9%
28.4%
-509.8%
ROA
5-point trend, +5.7%
14.6%
-25.4%
ROE
5-point trend, +5.8%
16.7%
-39.7%
ROIC
5-point trend, +2.6%
14.4%

财务健康 债务、流动性、偿付能力 — 资产负债表强度

指标
5年趋势
ISRG
同行中位数
Current Ratio (流动比率)
5-point trend, -4.1%
4.9
4.6
Quick Ratio (速动比率)
5-point trend, -14.2%
3.7

成长 营收、每股收益 (EPS) 和净利润增长:同比、3年复合年增长率 (CAGR)、5年复合年增长率 (CAGR)

指标
5年趋势
ISRG
同行中位数
Revenue YoY (营收同比增长)
5-point trend, +76.3%
20.5%
Revenue CAGR 3Y (营收3年复合年增长率)
5-point trend, +76.3%
17.4%
Revenue CAGR 5Y (营收5年复合年增长率)
5-point trend, +76.3%
18.2%
EPS YoY
5-point trend, +68.9%
22.6%
Net Income YoY (净利润同比增长)
5-point trend, +67.5%
23.0%

每股指标 每股收益 (EPS)、每股净资产、每股现金流、每股股息

指标
5年趋势
ISRG
同行中位数
EPS (Diluted) (EPS (稀释))
5-point trend, +68.9%
$7.87

资本效率 资产周转率、库存周转率、应收账款周转率

指标
5年趋势
ISRG
同行中位数

ISRG 分析师共识 看涨和看跌分析师观点、12个月价格目标、上涨空间

买入 41 位分析师
  • 强烈买入 11 26.8%
  • 买入 18 43.9%
  • 持有 11 26.8%
  • 卖出 1 2.4%
  • 强烈卖出 0 0.0%

12个月价格目标

30 位分析师 · 2026-05-18
中位数目标 $580.00 +30.7%
平均目标 $577.01 +30.0%

收益历史 每股收益实际值 vs 预估值,惊喜%,达标率,下次财报日期

平均惊喜
0.25%
期间 EPS Actual EPS 预期 惊喜
2026年3月31日 $2.50 $2.14 0.36%
2025年12月31日 $2.53 $2.30 0.23%
2025年9月30日 $2.40 $2.02 0.38%
2025年6月30日 $2.19 $1.96 0.23%
2025年3月31日 $1.81 $1.76 0.05%

同行比较 关键指标与行业同行对比

股票代码 市值 P/E 营收同比增长 净利润率 ROE 毛利率
ISRG $201.11B 72.0 20.5% 28.4% 16.7% 66.0%
ABT $250.18B 33.7 5.7% 14.7% 13.1%
SYK $134.44B 41.8 11.2% 12.9% 15.1% 64.0%
BSX 49.1 19.9% 14.4% 12.6% 69.0%
EW $49.50B 46.6 11.6% 17.7% 10.6% 78.0%
IDXX $53.93B 51.7 10.4% 24.6% 69.2% 61.8%
BDX 25.3 8.2% 7.7% 6.5%
RMD $37.77B 27.1 9.8% 27.2% 25.0% 59.4%
GEHC 18.0 4.8% 10.1% 22.1% 40.0%
DXCM $25.54B 31.8 15.6% 17.9% 31.4% 60.1%
ZBH $28.66B 25.3 7.2% 8.6% 5.6%

完整基本面 所有年度指标 — 损益表、资产负债表、现金流量表

损益表 16
ISRG 的年度损益表数据
指标 趋势 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue 12-point trend, +372.1% $10.06B $8.35B $7.12B $6.22B $5.71B $4.36B $4.48B $3.72B $3.14B $2.71B $2.38B $2.13B
Cost of Revenue 12-point trend, +376.7% $3.42B $2.72B $2.39B $2.03B $1.75B $1.50B $1.37B $1.12B $936M $814M $806M $718M
Gross Profit 12-point trend, +369.8% $6.64B $5.63B $4.73B $4.20B $3.96B $2.86B $3.11B $2.60B $2.20B $1.89B $1.58B $1.41B
R&D Expense 12-point trend, +637.0% $1.31B $1.15B $999M $879M $671M $595M $557M $418M $329M $240M $197M $178M
SG&A Expense 12-point trend, +245.2% $2.38B $2.14B $1.96B $1.74B $1.47B $1.22B $1.18B $987M $810M $704M $640M $691M
Operating Expenses 12-point trend, +325.4% $3.70B $3.29B $2.96B $2.62B $2.14B $1.81B $1.74B $1.40B $1.14B $943M $838M $869M
Operating Income 12-point trend, +440.7% $2.95B $2.35B $1.77B $1.58B $1.82B $1.05B $1.37B $1.20B $1.06B $950M $740M $545M
Other Non-op 12-point trend, +8611.9% $366M $325M $192M $30M $69M $157M $128M $80M $42M $36M $18M $4M
Pretax Income 12-point trend, +503.2% $3.31B $2.67B $1.96B $1.61B $1.89B $1.21B $1.50B $1.28B $1.10B $985M $758M $549M
Income Tax 12-point trend, +233.9% $435M $336M $142M $262M $162M $140M $120M $154M $434M $247M $170M $130M
Net Income 12-point trend, +581.9% $2.86B $2.32B $1.80B $1.32B $1.70B $1.06B $1.38B $1.13B $671M $738M $589M $419M
EPS (Basic) 12-point trend, -29.5% $8.00 $6.54 $5.12 $3.72 $4.79 $3.02 $3.98 $9.92 $6.01 $6.43 $5.29 $11.35
EPS (Diluted) 12-point trend, -29.2% $7.87 $6.42 $5.03 $3.65 $4.66 $2.94 $3.85 $9.49 $5.77 $6.26 $5.18 $11.11
Shares (Basic) 12-point trend, +867.2% 356,900,000 355,200,000 351,200,000 355,700,000 356,100,000 351,100,000 346,200,000 113,700,000 111,700,000 114,900,000 111,300,000 36,900,000
Shares (Diluted) 12-point trend, +862.1% 362,700,000 362,000,000 357,400,000 362,000,000 365,800,000 361,000,000 358,400,000 118,800,000 116,300,000 117,900,000 113,700,000 37,700,000
EBITDA 12-point trend, +440.7% $2.95B $2.35B $1.77B $1.58B $1.82B $1.05B $1.37B $1.20B $1.05B $945M $740M $545M
资产负债表 24
ISRG 的年度资产负债表数据
指标 趋势 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Cash & Equivalents 12-point trend, +461.1% $3.37B $2.03B $2.75B $1.58B $1.29B $1.62B $1.17B $858M $648M $1.04B $715M $600M
Short-term Investments 12-point trend, +306.0% $2.57B $1.99B $2.47B $2.54B $2.91B $3.49B $2.05B $2.21B $1.31B $1.52B $845M $632M
Receivables 12-point trend, +384.7% $1.53B $1.23B $1.13B $942M $783M $646M $645M $682M $508M $430M $394M $315M
Inventory 12-point trend, +912.7% $1.84B $1.49B $1.22B $893M $587M $602M $596M $409M $241M $182M $168M $182M
Prepaid Expense 12-point trend, +477.8% $477M $385M $314M $300M $271M $268M $200M $179M $99M $83M $74M $83M
Current Assets 12-point trend, +439.7% $9.78B $7.11B $7.89B $6.25B $5.84B $6.63B $4.66B $4.33B $2.81B $3.25B $2.20B $1.81B
PP&E (Net) 12-point trend, +1279.0% $5.34B $4.65B $3.54B $2.37B $1.88B $1.58B $1.27B $812M $613M $458M $432M $387M
PP&E (Gross) 12-point trend, +1148.4% $7.62B $6.53B $5.10B $3.61B $2.85B $2.33B $1.84B $1.25B $960M $780M $699M $610M
Accum. Depreciation 12-point trend, +921.3% $2.28B $1.88B $1.56B $1.24B $969M $758M $563M $436M $347M $322M $267M $223M
Goodwill 12-point trend, +87.0% $370M $348M $349M $348M $344M $337M $307M $241M $201M $201M $201M $198M
Intangibles 12-point trend, -76.9% $17M $23M $39M $50M $70M $77M $112M $67M $26M $32M $50M $74M
Total Assets 12-point trend, +416.7% $20.46B $18.74B $15.44B $12.97B $13.55B $11.17B $9.73B $7.85B $5.78B $6.49B $4.91B $3.96B
Accounts Payable 12-point trend, +314.1% $255M $193M $189M $147M $121M $82M $124M $101M $82M $68M $53M $62M
Accrued Liabilities 4-point trend, +33.7% · · · · · · · · $170M $151M $96M $127M
Current Liabilities 12-point trend, +300.3% $2.01B $1.75B $1.66B $1.42B $1.15B $965M $1.03B $821M $663M $596M $492M $501M
Capital Leases 7-point trend, +92.0% $132M $112M $64M $70M $67M $58M $69M · · · · ·
Other Non-current Liabilities 4-point trend, -72.1% · · · · · · · · $22M $113M $96M $79M
Total Liabilities 12-point trend, +334.0% $2.52B $2.21B $2.04B $1.86B $1.60B $1.41B $1.45B $1.16B $996M $709M $588M $580M
Common Stock 12-point trend, +400000.00 $400.0K $400.0K $400.0K $400.0K $400.0K $400.0K $100.0K $100.0K $100.0K $0 $0 $0
Retained Earnings 12-point trend, +1337.7% $7.01B $6.80B $4.74B $3.50B $4.76B $3.26B $2.49B $1.52B $115M $1.57B $899M $488M
AOCI 12-point trend, +949.0% $43M $-51M $-12M $-162M $-24M $25M $12M $-13M $-16M $-9M $-10M $-5M
Stockholders' Equity 12-point trend, +427.4% $17.82B $16.43B $13.31B $11.04B $11.90B $9.73B $8.26B $6.68B $4.78B $5.78B $4.32B $3.38B
Liabilities + Equity 12-point trend, +416.7% $20.46B $18.74B $15.44B $12.97B $13.55B $11.17B $9.73B $7.85B $5.78B $6.49B $4.91B $3.96B
Shares Outstanding 12-point trend, +870.2% 355,100,000 356,600,000 352,300,000 350,000,000 357,700,000 353,100,000 347,900,000 343,400,000 112,300,000 38,800,000 37,400,000 36,600,000
现金流 12
ISRG 的年度现金流数据
指标 趋势 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Stock-based Comp 12-point trend, +366.7% $788M $677M $593M $513M $449M $395M $336M $261M $209M $178M $168M $169M
Deferred Tax 12-point trend, +154.9% $19M $-135M $-281M $-185M $-64M $58M $-6M $34M $60M $21M $5M $-35M
Amort. of Intangibles 12-point trend, -41.1% $13M $17M $20M $28M $27M $50M $43M $14M $13M $18M $24M $22M
Operating Cash Flow 12-point trend, +355.6% $3.03B $2.42B $1.81B $1.49B $2.09B $1.48B $1.60B $1.17B $1.14B $1.09B $806M $665M
CapEx 12-point trend, +411.2% $540M $1.11B $1.06B $532M $340M $342M $426M $187M $191M $54M $81M $106M
Investing Cash Flow 12-point trend, +532.6% $666M $-3.27B $-360M $1.37B $-2.46B $-941M $-1.15B $-1.05B $379M $-1.28B $-850M $-154M
Stock Repurchased 12-point trend, +129.5% $2.30B $0 $416M $2.61B $0 $134M $270M $0 $2.27B $42M $184M $1.00B
Net Stock Activity 12-point trend, -129.5% $-2.30B $0 $-416M $-2.61B $0 $-134M $-270M $0 $-2.27B $-42M $-184M $-1.00B
Financing Cash Flow 12-point trend, -241.4% $-2.36B $151M $-288M $-2.57B $43M $-86M $-168M $126M $-1.91B $514M $159M $-692M
Net Change in Cash 12-point trend, +839.8% $1.34B $-708M $1.17B $295M $-332M $456M $273M $246M $-388M $322M $114M $-182M
Taxes Paid $538M · · · · · · · · · · ·
Free Cash Flow 12-point trend, +345.2% $2.49B $1.30B $750M $958M $1.74B $1.14B $1.17B $982M $953M $989M $691M $560M
盈利能力 8
ISRG 的年度盈利能力数据
指标 趋势 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Gross Margin 12-point trend, -0.5% 66.0% 67.5% 66.4% 67.4% 69.3% 65.6% 69.5% 69.9% 70.1% 69.9% 66.2% 66.3%
Operating Margin 12-point trend, +14.5% 29.3% 28.1% 24.8% 25.4% 31.9% 24.1% 30.7% 32.2% 33.7% 34.9% 31.0% 25.6%
Net Margin 12-point trend, +44.4% 28.4% 27.8% 25.2% 21.2% 29.8% 24.3% 30.8% 30.3% 21.1% 27.2% 24.7% 19.7%
Pretax Margin 12-point trend, +27.8% 32.9% 32.0% 27.5% 25.8% 33.1% 27.7% 33.5% 34.4% 35.0% 36.3% 31.8% 25.8%
EBITDA Margin 12-point trend, +14.5% 29.3% 28.1% 24.8% 25.4% 31.9% 24.1% 30.7% 32.2% 33.7% 34.9% 31.0% 25.6%
ROA 12-point trend, +37.6% 14.6% 13.6% 12.7% 10.0% 13.8% 10.2% 15.7% 16.6% 10.8% 12.9% 13.3% 10.6%
ROE 12-point trend, +37.0% 16.7% 15.6% 14.8% 11.5% 15.8% 11.8% 18.5% 19.7% 12.6% 14.6% 15.3% 12.2%
ROIC 12-point trend, +16.7% 14.4% 12.5% 12.3% 11.9% 14.0% 9.5% 15.3% 15.8% 13.4% 12.3% 13.3% 12.3%
流动性与偿付能力 2
ISRG 的年度流动性与偿付能力数据
指标 趋势 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Current Ratio 12-point trend, +32.3% 4.9 4.1 4.8 4.4 5.1 6.9 4.5 5.3 4.0 5.4 4.5 3.7
Quick Ratio 12-point trend, +20.5% 3.7 3.0 3.8 3.6 4.3 6.0 3.8 4.6 3.5 5.0 4.0 3.1
效率 3
ISRG 的年度效率数据
指标 趋势 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Asset Turnover 12-point trend, -4.7% 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Inventory Turnover 12-point trend, -48.2% 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.7 3.4 4.4 4.7 4.6 4.0
Receivables Turnover 12-point trend, +5.7% 7.3 7.1 6.9 7.2 8.0 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.9
每股 5
ISRG 的年度每股数据
指标 趋势 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Book Value / Share 12-point trend, -45.6% $50.19 $46.08 $37.77 $31.55 $33.27 $82.68 $71.24 $58.33 $42.08 $148.91 $115.49 $92.33
Revenue / Share 12-point trend, -50.9% $27.75 $23.07 $19.93 $17.19 $15.61 $36.23 $37.48 $31.35 $26.90 $68.81 $62.91 $56.54
Cash Flow / Share 12-point trend, -52.6% $8.36 $6.67 $5.08 $4.12 $5.71 $12.34 $13.37 $9.85 $9.84 $26.54 $20.37 $17.64
Cash / Share 12-point trend, -42.2% $9.48 $5.69 $7.81 $4.52 $3.61 $13.79 $10.07 $7.49 $5.77 $26.72 $19.11 $16.40
EPS (TTM) 12-point trend, -29.2% $7.87 $6.42 $5.03 $3.65 $4.66 $2.94 $3.85 $9.49 $5.77 $6.26 $5.18 $11.11
增长率 9
ISRG 的年度增长率数据
指标 趋势 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue YoY 5-point trend, -33.9% 20.5% 17.2% 14.5% 9.0% 31.0% · · · · · · ·
Revenue CAGR 3Y 3-point trend, -2.3% 17.4% 13.5% 17.8% · · · · · · · · ·
Revenue CAGR 5Y 18.2% · · · · · · · · · · ·
EPS YoY 5-point trend, -61.4% 22.6% 27.6% 37.8% -21.7% 58.5% · · · · · · ·
EPS CAGR 3Y 3-point trend, +48.9% 29.2% 11.3% 19.6% · · · · · · · · ·
EPS CAGR 5Y 21.8% · · · · · · · · · · ·
Net Income YoY 5-point trend, -62.2% 23.0% 29.2% 36.0% -22.4% 60.7% · · · · · · ·
Net Income CAGR 3Y 3-point trend, +52.1% 29.3% 10.9% 19.2% · · · · · · · · ·
Net Income CAGR 5Y 21.9% · · · · · · · · · · ·
估值 (TTM) 10
ISRG 的年度估值 (TTM)数据
指标 趋势 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue TTM 12-point trend, +372.1% $10.06B $8.35B $7.12B $6.22B $5.71B $4.36B $4.48B $3.72B $3.14B $2.71B $2.38B $2.13B
Net Income TTM 12-point trend, +581.9% $2.86B $2.32B $1.80B $1.32B $1.70B $1.06B $1.38B $1.13B $671M $738M $589M $419M
Market Cap 12-point trend, +9249.7% $201.11B $186.13B $118.85B $92.87B $128.52B $32.10B $22.86B $18.28B $13.66B $2.73B $2.27B $2.15B
P/E 12-point trend, +1260.4% 72.0 81.3 67.1 72.7 77.1 92.8 51.2 16.8 21.1 11.3 11.7 5.3
P/S 12-point trend, +1880.2% 20.0 22.3 16.7 14.9 22.5 7.4 5.1 4.9 4.4 1.0 1.0 1.0
P/B 12-point trend, +1672.7% 11.3 11.3 8.9 8.4 10.8 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.9 0.5 0.5 0.6
P / Tangible Book 6-point trend, +234.8% 11.5 11.6 9.2 8.7 11.2 3.4 · · · · · ·
P / Cash Flow 12-point trend, +1952.0% 66.4 77.1 65.5 62.3 61.5 21.6 14.3 15.6 11.9 2.6 2.9 3.2
P / FCF 12-point trend, +2000.3% 80.7 142.8 158.6 96.9 74.0 28.1 19.5 18.6 14.3 2.8 3.3 3.8
Earnings Yield 12-point trend, -92.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.9% 5.9% 4.7% 8.9% 8.5% 18.9%

财务报表 损益表、资产负债表、现金流量表 — 年度,近5年

损益表
2025-12-312024-12-312023-12-312022-12-312021-12-31
收入 $10.06B$8.35B$7.12B$6.22B$5.71B
毛利率 % 66.0%67.5%66.4%67.4%69.3%
营业利润率 % 29.3%28.1%24.8%25.4%31.9%
净收入 $2.86B$2.32B$1.80B$1.32B$1.70B
稀释后每股收益 (EPS) $7.87$6.42$5.03$3.65$4.66
资产负债表
2025-12-312024-12-312023-12-312022-12-312021-12-31
流动比率 4.94.14.84.45.1
速动比率 3.73.03.83.64.3
现金流
2025-12-312024-12-312023-12-312022-12-312021-12-31
自由现金流 $2.49B$1.30B$750M$958M$1.74B

ISRG AI分析师小组 — 看涨和看跌观点 2026Q2 辩论:Claude、Grok、Gemini、ChatGPT 对该股票前景的看法

第一轮 — 开盘观点

Grok NEUTRAL 0.75
↑ 看涨

我认为ISRG最强劲的看涨理由是其“刀片和刀柄”模式,该模式通过不断增长的全球达芬奇系统装机量带来持续的利润。28.58%的净利润率意味着Intuitive几乎将三分之一的销售额直接转化为净利润,远高于同行,这得益于经常性的器械收入。负债权益比为0.0,使公司拥有稳如磐石的资产负债表,可以在没有杠杆风险的情况下为研发提供资金。每股收益TTM已升至7.56美元,高于上季度的7.17美元,预示着到2026年手术量将加速增长。

↓ 看跌

如果机器人手术的热度因竞争或报销削减而消退,暴露了过高的估值,那么看跌的理由就会破灭。市盈率TTM为73倍,远高于SYK的40倍等同行,这意味着市场定价完美,没有增长放缓的空间。最近的股价走势显示,触及545美元后大幅下跌至收盘价512美元,成交量飙升至860万股,暗示着获利了结。包括ISRG在内的ETF资金流出表明机构持谨慎态度。

Claude NEUTRAL 0.68
↑ 看涨

Intuitive Surgical凭借近乎垄断的经济效益和不断扩大的护城河,主导着手术机器人市场。该公司拥有零债务、66%的毛利率和29%的净利率,这是大多数医疗器械同行无法企及的。是的,该股票的交易价格是过去收益的73倍——远高于Stryker的40倍或Abbott的26倍——但这一倍数反映了一个企业,该企业每年将16%的股东权益转化为利润,同时其装机量的增长速度超过了竞争对手的反应速度。装机量在复利增长,手术量随之而来,定价权依然完好。

↓ 看跌

这种估值几乎没有犯错的空间,而且机器人采用曲线最终会趋于平缓。以73倍的市盈率计算,ISRG为未来多年的完美执行定价——任何手术量增长的失误、竞争导致的利润率压缩或缓慢的国际扩张都将触发市盈率的大幅收缩。流动比率从一季度的5.6降至4.97,表明现金消耗或资本部署值得关注。Stryker和Zimmer等竞争对手正在大力投资竞争平台;如果采用速度放缓或出现价格压力,ISRG的溢价市盈率将无处遁形。

Gemini NEUTRAL 0.80
↑ 看涨

Intuitive Surgical凭借牢不可破的竞争护城河主导着机器人手术市场,这带来了巨大的、经常性的盈利能力。该公司维持着66.38%的毛利率。这表明,在扣除直接生产成本后,每1美元的收入,他们能保留超过66美分,这反映了医疗器械领域的巨大定价能力。此外,由于负债权益比为零,他们拥有干净的资产负债表。这意味着公司完全自给自足,没有利率风险,这为他们积极投资下一代手术平台提供了财务灵活性,而竞争对手则在杠杆方面苦苦挣扎。

↓ 看跌

估值已与潜在增长轨迹严重脱节,无法证明当前水平的新头寸是合理的。投资者目前支付的市盈率为73.09倍。这意味着市场预计未来几年将实现近乎完美的执行,几乎没有犯错或临床挫折的空间。此外,市销率(P/S)为20.89倍。如此高的倍数意味着该股票的定价是基于难以维持的超高速增长,因为它们正在接近市场饱和,这使得当前股价极易受到增长率正常化至行业平均水平时市盈率压缩的影响。

Chatgpt NEUTRAL 0.62
↑ 看涨

我认为ISRG的优势在于其持久的机器人平台和高利润率的服务生态系统。股本回报率TTM:16.06%。这个水平表明ISRG有效地利用了股权,并能维持盈利增长。毛利率TTM:66.38%。这个利润率表明其设备生态系统具有定价能力和强大的固定成本吸收能力。债务/权益:0.0。无债务的资产负债表提供了为研发、扩张或股票回购提供资金的选择权。

↓ 看跌

我认为ISRG相对于增长风险来说定价过高,这可能会导致其价值回落。市盈率TTM:73.0905。如此高昂的倍数定价意味着激进的增长,除非增长轨迹保持完美。市销率TTM:20.8877。高销售倍数意味着股票依赖于收入增长来获得回报;任何放缓都会影响倍数。市净率(年度):11.3128。两位数的市净率表明对资产价值的过度乐观;如果盈利能力停滞,股价可能会回落。

第二轮 — 回复与反驳

Grok

Claude,你关于流动比率从5.6降至4.97预示现金消耗的观点忽略了资产负债表的实力。在4.97时,它仍然意味着流动资产几乎是负债的五倍,这为ISRG提供了充足的流动性,可以轻松地为达芬奇扩张或研发提供资金。由于负债权益比为零,这种下降很可能反映了明智的资本部署,而不是困境。

Claude

我认为Grok对股价走势的解读是错误的。是的,我们看到了股价跌至512美元,成交量飙升至860万股,但这发生在7月初,此前该股在过去三周已从508美元上涨至544美元。这不是趋势中的获利了结——这是2000亿美元股票的正常每周波动。真正值得关注的是每股收益(EPS)从上一季度的7.17美元升至7.56美元。这5%的超预期很重要,因为它表明手术量实际上在加速,而不是停滞。与盈利势头相比,ETF资金流是噪音。

Gemini ⇄ 改变想法

Grok,你关于近期ETF资金流出表明机构谨慎的观点是我在初步评估中忽略的关键一环。当你看到近期下跌期间成交量飙升至860万股时,这表明聪明钱正在积极地从这种溢价估值中进行再平衡。该成交量代表了所有权动态的重大转变。如果机构支持减弱,该股票73倍的市盈率将变得极其脆弱,因为能够证明一家医疗器械公司如此高昂价格的买家越来越少。

Chatgpt

Claude,你的护城河论点很有说服力,但73倍的市盈率使得ISRG在增长或利润率放缓时变得脆弱。这个水平意味着市场预期未来多年的完美执行,因此即使手术量或定价能力出现温和失误,也可能触发有意义的市盈率压缩。我重视其无债务的立场和强劲的利润率,但在这里估值纪律很重要——如果增长路径停滞,资本部署的灵活性将无法挽救股价。

第三轮 — 最终反驳

G
Grok

Claude,我反对将ETF资金流视为噪音——它们预示着值得注意的机构谨慎。3月25日的新闻突显了包括ISRG在内的ETF出现显著资金流出,就在成交量在跌至收盘价512美元时飙升至860万股。这一激增远高于前一周540万股的平均水平,表明是大户在出货,而不是随机波动。以73倍的市盈率计算,如果手术量增长放缓,这种削减是有道理的,会放大下行风险。

C
Claude

我想反驳一个迄今为止没有人提出过的观点:Gemini,你说机构支持减弱使73倍的市盈率变得脆弱,但你将ETF资金流解读为聪明钱在重新平衡。我将这样解读:一家拥有66%毛利率和零债务的2000亿美元手术机器人垄断企业,不会因为估值而遭到机构抛售——它会被削减以进行投资组合再平衡或行业轮换。真正的风险不是机构失去信心;而是手术量增长随着装机量的成熟而实际放缓。每股收益(EPS)环比增长5%,但我需要看看这是来自销量还是仅仅是定价。如果国际采用率已经达到平台期,并且美国手术量在疫情后正常化,那么73倍的市盈率并非因为资金流而脆弱——而是因为增长叙事本身正在破裂。这才是值得认真对待的看跌理由。

G
Gemini

我想挑战Claude对机构资金流的忽视。Claude,你称ETF资金流为噪音,但当你看到最近860万股的成交量飙升时,你忽略了大型股轮动的技术现实。随着利率周期趋于稳定,机构投资者正将资本转向以价值为导向的医疗保健股票。这种从高市盈率增长型股票的轮换是Intuitive面临的真实宏观阻力。即使拥有完美的资产负债表,该股票的交易价格也高达73倍的市盈率,这种估值需要持续、大量的机构买盘来维持动能。

C
Chatgpt

Claude,你的护城河论点很有说服力,但估值是一个主要的限制因素。该股票的交易价格为73倍的市盈率。这意味着市场定价的是未来多年的完美执行,几乎没有为手术量增长或定价能力的任何倒退留下缓冲。即使拥有占主导地位的装机量,任何小失误都可能触发有意义的市盈率压缩。如果出现监管或报销方面的阻力,这种溢价尤其容易受到冲击。

价格预测

模型 3个月目标 6个月目标 原因
G Grok 3个月目标 $525.00 6个月目标 $545.00 原因 我认为ISRG的达芬奇垄断在机构的密切关注下,通过手术量的持续增长来维持溢价定价能力,从而带来适度的上涨空间。关键催化剂是2026年第二季度财报,将于7月下旬发布,届时每股收益(EPS)超出7.56美元,手术量增长15%以上,将加速看涨前景。一个重大风险是Stryker的机器人平台获得FDA批准,侵蚀了护城河的叙事。我设定的6个月目标价545美元,相当于当前每股收益的72倍市盈率,这意味着市场仍在押注16%的股本回报率(ROE)能推动无杠杆扩张,但任何放缓都会将其限制在这一水平。
C Claude 3个月目标 $520.00 6个月目标 $545.00 原因 我的论点是:ISRG的护城河是真实的,但73倍的市盈率是限制因素,而不是装机量。该股票的重新定价取决于手术量增长是否持续,而不是放缓的证据。催化剂:7月下旬的2026年第二季度财报将显示,第一季度每股收益(EPS)超出预期的5%是持续的销量加速还是仅为单季噪音。如果手术量同比增长保持在8%以上,市盈率将维持不变,股票将在年底前小幅上涨至545美元。风险:国际采用率比预期更快地达到平台期,迫使管理层下调手术量增长预期,触发15-20%的市盈率压缩至60倍。以73倍计算,市场定价的是完美执行,没有犯错的余地。当前价格514.59美元如果执行情况良好,则有适度的上涨空间,但如果增长破裂,下行风险则不对称。
G Gemini 3个月目标 $505.00 6个月目标 $485.00 原因 我的论点是,随着投资者从高溢价增长型股票转向更具防御性的医疗保健类股,该股票将经历一段市盈率收缩期。导致下跌的主要催化剂将是下一次财报发布,届时任何手术量增长放缓都将迫使分析师削减他们过高的预期。相反,我悲观前景的最大风险是国际市场渗透取得重大突破,重新点燃收入增长的加速。Intuitive目前的市盈率为73.09倍。如此极高的倍数意味着市场正在为未来多年的完美表现支付溢价,使得股价极易受到季度执行中哪怕是微小失望的影响。
C Chatgpt 3个月目标 $525.00 6个月目标 $550.00 原因 我认为ISRG短期内可能会小幅上涨,但高估值将限制其上涨空间。关键催化剂是即将发布的季度财报,显示达芬奇手术量持续增长且利润率稳定。风险在于采用速度慢于预期或报销方面的阻力可能抑制增长并导致市盈率压缩。73倍的市盈率意味着市场定价的是近乎完美的执行;任何失误都将触发有意义的市盈率压缩。尽管如此,稳健的资产负债表和高毛利率在周期逆转时提供了缓冲。

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