Von Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
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The panel consensus is bearish on AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and Intuitive Machines (LUNR), citing significant execution risks, uncertain revenue visibility, and potential regulatory hurdles. While the long-term space economy projection is compelling, investors should be cautious about the capital-intensive nature and high-risk profile of these firms.
Risiko: ASTS's launch dependency on SpaceX and potential capacity crowding, as well as LUNR's reliance on government funding and converting backlog into revenue.
Chance: The long-term growth potential of the space economy and the potential for LUNR to achieve consistent operating margins.
Diese Analyse wird vom StockScreener-Pipeline generiert — vier führende LLM (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) erhalten identische Prompts mit integrierten Anti-Halluzinations-Schutzvorrichtungen. Methodik lesen →
According to PwC, the space economy could potentially reach $2 trillion by 2040.
AST SpaceMobile aims to provide direct cell phone services from space and has ambitious launch plans.
Intuitive Machines achieved the first U.S. lunar landing since 1972.
SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) might be the most anticipated this century and will likely be the largest IPO on record when it happens on June 12. The U.S. is throwing its support behind space exploration and advancement for scientific and national security purposes, and the consulting firm PwC projects the space economy could grow to $2 trillion by 2040.
With the spotlight on the growing space economy, here are two intriguing space stocks to scoop up ahead of SpaceX's IPO.
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AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) provides direct-to-cellular broadband to cellphones and competes with SpaceX's highly successful Starlink product. The company aims to provide full cellphone service, including call, text, data, and live video streaming. This is made possible by its Block 2 BlueBird satellites, which are the largest commercial phased-array antennas ever deployed in low Earth orbit, measuring up to 2,400 square feet.
In recent years, the company has entered into agreements with top carriers, including AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone. To provide continuous service to its early, high-priority target markets, AST entered 2026 planning to deploy 45 to 60 satellites before the end of the year.
Last month, it faced a setback when Blue Origin's New Glenn launch vehicle deployed its satellite too low in orbit, rendering it unusable. AST has de-orbited this satellite and, more importantly, has had to rely on other launch partners, such as SpaceX, to meet its launch goals for the year.
AST plans to launch its next batch of three satellites sometime in June, and management still believes it can achieve its goal of 45 satellites by the end of this year, with launches occurring every one to two months and supported by contracts with multiple launch providers.
With 5.8 million global mobile subscribers and government contracts, including a $30 million contract with the Space Development Agency (SDA) for tactical broadband, AST SpaceMobile is a force in the making.
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) made headlines a couple of years ago when it achieved the first U.S. lunar landing since the Apollo 17 mission in 1972. The company provides aerospace and space infrastructure, including robotic landers for scientific exploration, ground stations and satellites for communications, and space systems and related components.
What makes Intuitive Machines compelling is its role as a vertically integrated space contractor for the U.S. government. Earlier this year, it was awarded $429 million in new contracts, driven by the SDA's efforts to get a 72-satellite network into orbit to detect, track, and warn against advanced missile threats. It also received a $180 million commercial lunar payload services (CLPS) contract from NASA.
The company tripled its revenue in the first quarter to $186.7 million and ended the quarter with a backlog of over $1.1 billion, a staggering $842 million increase from the end of last year, and expects about 60% of this backlog to be converted into revenue this year. With massive tailwinds from government contracts, Intuitive Machine is another intriguing space stock for investors today.
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Courtney Carlsen has positions in Intuitive Machines. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines. The Motley Fool recommends Verizon Communications and Vodafone Group Public. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Vier führende AI-Modelle diskutieren diesen Artikel
"Launch failures and backlog conversion risk make both stocks far more speculative than the article's growth narrative implies."
The article frames ASTS and LUNR as straightforward winners from the projected $2T space economy and SpaceX's June 12 IPO, highlighting carrier deals, lunar landings, and $429M/ $180M contracts. Execution details undermine this: ASTS's recent Blue Origin failure forced reliance on SpaceX launches, while LUNR must convert an $1.1B backlog at 60% this year from a low revenue base. Government funding and vertical integration provide support, yet both remain pre-profit with binary launch outcomes that the promotional tone downplays.
Real SDA and NASA contracts plus carrier partnerships could still deliver revenue inflection if launch cadence holds, outweighing near-term satellite setbacks.
"LUNR has earned optionality through real contracts and revenue; ASTS is a binary bet on unproven technology disguised as a space-economy play."
The article conflates two very different investment theses. LUNR has real, near-term revenue visibility ($1.1B backlog, 60% conversion expected this year) backed by government contracts—that's tangible. ASTS is speculative: it's betting on a technology (direct-to-cell from LEO) that hasn't proven commercial viability, just suffered a launch failure, and now depends on SpaceX (its competitor) to meet 2026 targets. The $2T space economy projection is a 2040 fantasy that doesn't validate either company's path to profitability. The article also omits that ASTS faces massive capex requirements and carrier adoption remains unproven despite those MoUs.
LUNR's backlog could face delays or cancellations if geopolitical priorities shift, and government-dependent revenue is cyclical. ASTS's direct-to-cell tech, if it works, could be genuinely transformative and justify a speculative premium today.
"The reliance on government contracts and unproven launch schedules makes these companies high-risk binary outcomes rather than stable proxies for the broader space economy."
The article's premise that a SpaceX IPO on June 12th is a catalyst for ASTS and LUNR is highly speculative and lacks verification; SpaceX has not officially confirmed this date. While the $2 trillion space economy projection is a compelling long-term narrative, investors should be wary of the capital-intensive nature of these firms. ASTS faces significant execution risk regarding satellite deployment and orbital reliability, while LUNR, despite a strong $1.1 billion backlog, must prove it can achieve consistent operating margins rather than just revenue growth. These are high-beta, speculative plays that are more sensitive to interest rates and government budget cycles than to the broader 'space economy' hype.
The government's pivot toward space-based national security infrastructure provides a non-cyclical revenue floor that could insulate these companies from the typical volatility of early-stage tech growth.
"Even with long-run space-market tailwinds, ASTS and LUNR face meaningful execution and revenue-visibility risks that could limit near-term gains, making the hype around SpaceX’s IPO a thin catalyst at best."
The space-economy tailwinds are plausible (PwC's $2T by 2040), but the article glosses critical risks: AST SpaceMobile’s direct-to-cell service from space faces fierce competition (Starlink), and its plan to deploy 45–60 satellites by year-end hinges on a fragile cadence across multiple launch partners after a New Glenn setback. Intuitive Machines shows big government contracts (SDA, CLPS) but government funding is cyclical and backlog isn’t revenue, making near-term visibility uncertain. The SpaceX IPO angle remains dubious as a near-term catalyst, given private-market dynamics and potential re-pricing. Taken together, the upside looks contingent on milestones that may slip and on sustained, unpredictable government demand.
Bullish case: if the space economy accelerates as forecast, and ASTS/LUNR secure carrier-scale commitments and timely launch successes, margins and revenue could surprise to the upside even from current levels.
"SpaceX IPO may prioritize Starlink launches, further delaying ASTS satellite deployment."
Claude correctly flags ASTS's launch dependency on SpaceX, yet misses the second-order effect: a SpaceX IPO could redirect internal capacity toward Starlink's own constellation, crowding out external payloads and extending ASTS's timeline beyond 2026. This compounds the already fragile multi-partner cadence after the Blue Origin failure, turning a technical risk into a structural capacity constraint that neither the backlog visibility nor carrier MoUs can offset.
"SpaceX IPO threatens ASTS via pricing leverage, not payload crowding."
Grok's SpaceX capacity-crowding thesis is plausible but speculative. A public SpaceX prioritizes launch cadence efficiency, not internal constellation expansion—Starlink's constellation is largely complete. The real risk is pricing power: if SpaceX IPO succeeds, launch costs rise, squeezing ASTS's unit economics more directly than capacity constraints. That's the second-order effect worth modeling.
"SpaceX's potential IPO introduces regulatory antitrust risks for ASTS that could paradoxically stabilize launch access by forcing fair-access mandates."
Claude's focus on SpaceX pricing power misses the regulatory reality. If SpaceX IPOs, it faces intense scrutiny regarding its dual role as a launch provider and a satellite operator. This creates a potential antitrust bottleneck for ASTS that is far more dangerous than launch costs. If the FTC or FCC forces a separation of services or imposes fair-access mandates, ASTS's launch reliability could actually improve, not worsen, despite the higher cost of capital.
"Grok's capacity-crowding thesis hinges on an uncertain chain; the real, more testable risk is IPO-driven pricing power and regulatory scrutiny that could raise ASTS unit costs and push delays, undermining the timetable even with a larger backlog."
Grok, your space-crowding risk assumes SpaceX reallocates launch capacity to Starlink at the expense of ASTS, but that chain is highly speculative and probably overstated given SpaceX's own capex and manufacturing flexibility. The more actionable risk is pricing power and regulatory scrutiny if an IPO alters SpaceX's business mix, potentially widening ASTS's unit costs and delaying launches even with a larger backlog. The '2T space economy' hype remains a timing gamble, not a warranty.
The panel consensus is bearish on AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and Intuitive Machines (LUNR), citing significant execution risks, uncertain revenue visibility, and potential regulatory hurdles. While the long-term space economy projection is compelling, investors should be cautious about the capital-intensive nature and high-risk profile of these firms.
The long-term growth potential of the space economy and the potential for LUNR to achieve consistent operating margins.
ASTS's launch dependency on SpaceX and potential capacity crowding, as well as LUNR's reliance on government funding and converting backlog into revenue.