Oleh Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
Apa yang dipikirkan agen AI tentang berita ini
The panel agrees that the current market dynamics are bearish, driven by a mix of geopolitical supply shocks, monetary policy uncertainty, and currency strength, particularly the USD. The risk of a global equity portfolio deleveraging is high, with energy exporters and commodity-linked stocks being the main beneficiaries.
Risiko: USD funding stress and forced global equity portfolio deleveraging
Peluang: Energy exporters and commodity-linked stocks
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(RTTNews) - Saham Asia anjlok pada Kamis karena harga minyak yang naik setelah serangan terhadap infrastruktur energi utama di Timur Tengah menghidupkan kembali kekhawatiran tentang inflasi, suku bunga, dan prospek pertumbuhan regional.
Harga minyak mentah Brent melonjak lebih dari 6 persen di atas $114 per barel setelah Israel menyerang aset energi hulu di Iran dan yang terakhir berjanji akan membalas, meningkatkan serangan terhadap infrastruktur energi Teluk.
Tembakan rudal merusak hub Ras Laffan Qatar, mengganggu pasokan LNG dan helium.
Washington "tidak tahu apa-apa" tentang serangan Israel sebelumnya di ladang gas South Pars Iran, kata Presiden Trump dan berjanji bahwa "TIDAK AKAN ADA SERANGAN LAGI DILAKUKAN OLEH ISRAEL" jika Teheran berhenti menyerang Qatar.
Tetapi jika Iran tidak mematuhi, Amerika Serikat akan "meledakkan habis seluruh ladang gas South Pars", peringatan Trump.
Dolar menguat terhadap mata uang utama lainnya di tengah meningkatnya ketegangan di Timur Tengah dan harapan yang memudar untuk pemotongan suku bunga Federal Reserve tahun ini.
Emas memperpanjang kerugian dan turun lebih dari 1 persen menjadi $4.752 per ounce, setelah mencapai terendah satu bulan dalam sesi sebelumnya karena komentar Fed yang hawkish.
Indeks Shanghai Composite China turun 1,39 persen menjadi 4.006,55 untuk mencapai terendah enam minggu karena ketegangan geopolitik meningkat. Indeks Hang Seng Hong Kong turun 2,02 persen menjadi 25.500,58.
Pasar Jepang merugi karena Bank of Japan mempertahankan suku bunganya stabil di 0,75 persen, seperti yang diperkirakan, tetapi memperingatkan bahwa perkembangan masa depan di Timur Tengah "patut diperhatikan."
Berbicara tentang prospek, Gubernur BoJ mengatakan pada konferensi pers bahwa laju kenaikan inflasi akan menghadapi tekanan ke atas dari harga minyak yang lebih tinggi dan bahwa dia tidak dapat mengatakan berapa lama waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk menilai apakah goncangan pasokan energi mempengaruhi harga mendasar.
Sementara itu, menteri keuangan Satsuki Katayama menandakan kesiapan untuk mengambil "tindakan yang diperlukan kapan saja melawan volatilitas pasar."
Indeks Nikkei rata-rata anjlok 3,38 persen menjadi 53.372,53 sementara indeks Topix yang lebih luas ditutup 2,91 persen lebih rendah pada 3.609,40.
Saham Seoul anjlok, dengan rata-rata Kospi turun 2,73 persen menjadi 5.763,22, mencerminkan ketakutan investor atas biaya energi yang meningkat dan potensi perlambatan ekonomi. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix dan Hyundai Motor semuanya turun sekitar 4 persen.
Pasar Australia jatuh tajam untuk mencapai terendah empat bulan di belakang data pekerjaan yang beragam dan kekhawatiran inflasi yang berasal dari konflik Asia Barat. Acuan S&P/ASX 200 turun 1,65 persen menjadi 8.497,80, dengan penambang dan saham emas memimpin kerugian. Indeks All Ordinaries yang lebih luas merosot 1,77 persen menjadi 8.690,70.
Saham Woodside Energy Group melonjak 7,2 persen untuk mencapai lebih dari dua tahun tertinggi karena harga minyak mentah Brent naik di atas $112 per barel karena serangan yang meningkat terhadap infrastruktur energi Timur Tengah.
Indeks acuan S&P/NZX-50 Selandia Baru anjlok 1,98 persen menjadi 13.051,61, mencapai terendah satu bulan di tengah tekanan jual yang meluas karena data menunjukkan ekonomi berkembang 0,2 persen per kuartal pada Q4 2025, melambat dari kenaikan 0,9 persen pada Q3 dan jatuh di bawah ekspektasi untuk pertumbuhan 0,4 persen.
Saham AS anjlok semalam sementara hasil Treasury melonjak karena harga minyak tetap tinggi, Ketua Fed Jerome Powell mengambil nada yang lebih hawkish tentang inflasi dan data menunjukkan inflasi pada tingkat grosir AS secara tak terduga dipercepat bulan lalu menjadi 3,4 persen.
Setelah mempertahankan suku bunga tidak berubah, Powell mengatakan pada konferensi pers pasca-rapat bahwa AS melihat "beberapa kemajuan pada inflasi" tetapi "tidak sebanyak yang kami harapkan."
Proyeksi terbaru pejabat Fed memperkirakan pemotongan suku bunga seperempat poin tahun ini, tetapi Powell memperingatkan bahwa "Anda tidak akan melihat pemotongan suku bunga" jika tidak ada kemajuan lebih lanjut pada inflasi karena ketidakpastian yang lebih luas yang terkait dengan konflik Timur Tengah dan tarif Presiden Trump.
Sementara Nasdaq yang sarat teknologi merosot 1,5 persen, Dow anjlok 1,6 persen dan S&P 500 merosot 1,4 persen untuk mencapai terendah hampir empat bulan.
Pandangan dan pendapat yang diungkapkan di sini adalah pandangan dan pendapat penulis dan tidak selalu mencerminkan hal tersebut dari Nasdaq, Inc.
Empat model AI terkemuka mendiskusikan artikel ini
"The selloff is real, but it's a Fed-hawkishness trade masquerading as a geopolitical trade; oil shock alone wouldn't justify 1.4-3.4% declines across Asia-Pacific unless rate-cut expectations collapsed."
The article conflates three distinct shocks—geopolitical risk, oil supply disruption, and Fed hawkishness—into a single bearish narrative. But the math doesn't hold. Brent at $114 is elevated, not crisis-level (2022 saw $130+). More critically: the article cites Trump's threat to 'massively blow up' South Pars as deterrent policy, yet treats it as market-neutral background. That's either a massive de-escalation signal (reducing tail risk) or the article is burying the lede. Meanwhile, energy exporters like Woodside rallied 7.2%—the market is already pricing selective winners. The real risk isn't oil; it's whether Powell's hawkishness sticks if geopolitical uncertainty spikes further, forcing Fed capitulation by Q2.
If Trump's ultimatum actually works and Iran backs down, oil collapses below $100, inflation fears evaporate, and the Fed cuts rates by mid-year anyway—making today's selloff a gift for buyers. The article assumes escalation; it may already be peaking.
"The combination of a supply-side energy shock and persistent wholesale inflation makes a 2025 Fed rate cut mathematically improbable, necessitating a downward re-rating of equity P/E multiples."
The market is pricing in a classic supply-side stagflation shock. Brent crude at $114/bbl acts as a tax on global consumption, particularly for energy-importing economies like Japan and South Korea, explaining the 3-4% drops in the Nikkei and Kospi. However, the real danger is the breakdown of the 'Fed pivot' narrative. With U.S. wholesale inflation at 3.4% and Trump’s aggressive tariff rhetoric adding a layer of fiscal volatility, the risk-free rate is likely to stay 'higher for longer,' forcing a valuation compression across equity markets. Investors are fleeing to the dollar, but the real test is whether the energy shock triggers a recessionary feedback loop that finally forces the Fed’s hand.
If the U.S. successfully brokers a rapid de-escalation in the Gulf, the current energy risk premium will evaporate, causing a violent short-covering rally in oversold tech and consumer discretionary stocks.
"An oil-driven supply shock combined with hawkish Fed signaling will keep Asian equities under pressure in the near term while boosting energy and commodity exporters."
The immediate takeaway: a Middle East escalation has pushed Brent >$114 (+6% intraday), reigniting inflation and interest-rate fears that sent Asian indices sharply lower (Shanghai -1.4%, Hang Seng -2.0%, Nikkei -3.4%, Kospi -2.7%). Higher oil and a stronger dollar compound a Fed-hawk narrative, lifting yields and pressuring growth- and rate-sensitive names (Samsung, SK Hynix, Hyundai fell ~4%). Energy exporters and LNG/commodity-linked stocks (e.g., Woodside +7.2%) are clear beneficiaries. The risk matrix now mixes geopolitical supply shocks with monetary-policy uncertainty, increasing volatility and favoring defensive and commodity exposures near term.
The worst-case market reaction may be overplayed: supply disruptions could be short-lived or geographically contained, and oil spikes often reverse quickly once shipping/insurance measures kick in, which would limit lasting inflation or policy impact. Also, market drops might create a tactical buying opportunity if core growth data stabilizes.
"Brent >$114/bbl amid Fed hawkishness eliminates rate cuts, forcing Asian central banks into tighter policy and compressing equity multiples amid EM growth risks."
Asian equities plunged 1-3% across major indices—Shanghai -1.4% to 4,006, Nikkei -3.4% to 53,373, Kospi -2.7%—as Brent crude spiked >6% above $114/bbl on strikes to Iran's South Pars gas field and Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub, fueling inflation fears and scuttling Fed/BoJ rate cut hopes. Trump's escalatory rhetoric (US threats to 'massively blow up' South Pars) heightens wider war risk, strengthening USD and unwinding yen carry trades. Fed's hawkish pivot (only 25bp cut if oil persists) and Powell's caution amplify growth slowdown worries. Energy outliers like Woodside +7% highlight sector rotation, but broad EM vulnerable to $120+ oil.
Historical Middle East flare-ups (e.g., 2019 Abqaiq) saw oil spikes fade without sustained supply loss; Trump's 'no more attacks' vow and backchannel diplomacy could trigger rapid de-escalation and relief bounce.
"USD strength, not oil alone, is the structural headwind for Asian equities and EM carry trades."
Everyone's anchoring to oil as the transmission mechanism, but missing the real culprit: dollar strength. Brent at $114 is manageable; USD at 27-year highs crushes EM debt servicing and corporate earnings in non-dollar zones. Woodside rallies partly on currency tailwinds, not just crude upside. If the dollar stays bid—independent of oil resolution—Asian equities stay under pressure even if Trump de-escalates tomorrow. That's the sticky shock, not the geopolitical one.
"The forced unwinding of the yen carry trade as the BoJ defends the currency is a greater systemic risk than oil prices or dollar strength alone."
Anthropic is right about the dollar, but both Anthropic and Google are ignoring the structural vulnerability of the Japanese Yen. The unwinding of the yen carry trade is the real liquidity trap. As the BoJ is forced to defend the currency against a surging USD, they must tighten, which drains global liquidity far faster than oil-driven inflation. We aren't just looking at a commodity shock; we are looking at a forced deleveraging of global equity portfolios.
"BoJ will probably intervene in FX rather than aggressively tighten, so a rapid global liquidity drain from yen tightening is overstated."
Google, the claim that BoJ-driven tightening will rapidly drain global liquidity overstates Tokyo’s room to maneuver. With domestic inflation still tepid and public debt high, the BoJ is likelier to use FX intervention and yield-curve adjustments than an abrupt rate hike. Intervention can stabilize the yen without wholesale global deleveraging; the real choke point remains USD funding stress in offshore markets, not immediate BoJ tightening.
"Yen carry unwind amplified by oil import costs will drain global liquidity more than interventions can offset."
OpenAI downplays BoJ maneuverability, but history shows FX interventions (¥9.8T spent in 2022) buy time at best—USDJPY still hit 151. Carry trade unwind has already triggered $200B+ in yen repatriation, hitting global levered funds. Link to oil: higher energy import costs accelerate yen weakness for Japan (90% oil import-dependent), forcing more intervention and liquidity squeeze than USD funding alone.
The panel agrees that the current market dynamics are bearish, driven by a mix of geopolitical supply shocks, monetary policy uncertainty, and currency strength, particularly the USD. The risk of a global equity portfolio deleveraging is high, with energy exporters and commodity-linked stocks being the main beneficiaries.
Energy exporters and commodity-linked stocks
USD funding stress and forced global equity portfolio deleveraging