Lucidが5%下落し、新たな安値を更新：この暴落自体が買収の触媒となり得るか？

Quick Read

- Lucid Group (LCID) stock slid 5% to $6.93, hitting record lows, with shareholder equity collapsing from $3.87B in FY 2024 to $717M in FY 2025 while debt surged from $2.3B to $3.47B.

- Lucid faces three competing scenarios—a potential Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund (PIF)-led acquisition, short squeeze reversal, or capitulation-driven bankruptcy—with prediction markets now pricing a 50.5% probability of bankruptcy before 2027, up sharply from 28% just days earlier.

- The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.

Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) stock is down 5% in Monday trading, sliding from $7.30 to $6.93 and touching fresh record lows. The stock has now shed 34% year-to-date, a collapse that’s moved well beyond a simple earnings story.

What’s different today is the nature of the conversation surrounding LCID stock. The investor community is sharply divided between short squeeze speculation, buyout thesis believers, and outright capitulation. The central question gaining traction: has the freefall itself become the catalyst?

Continuing a selloff that began after Friday’s session, as we noted last week, today’s move compounds a brutal stretch for Lucid’s shareholders with no clear floor in sight.

READ: The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks

Fresh Record Lows in a Brutal Slide

The decline has been severe. Lucid stock has fallen 25% in just the past week and is now trading well below its 50-day moving average of $9.76. Moreover, the 52-week high of $33.70 now feels like a distant memory.

The fundamentals behind the slide are worth noting. Lucid's cost of revenue consistently exceeds total revenue, and shareholder equity collapsed from $3.87 billion in FY 2024 to $717 million in FY 2025.

Short Squeeze Thesis

Some contrarian traders are eyeing the relentless LCID stock decline as a potential setup for a violent reversal. The logic is straightforward: when bearish positioning becomes too extended in a heavily shorted name, even a modest positive catalyst can trigger a cascade of forced buying.

Lucid does carry a few ingredients that short squeeze watchers look for. The float is only 152.9 million shares against a much larger share count, meaning concentrated short positions could face meaningful pressure if sentiment flips. That said, we’d caution readers that without verifiable short interest data, this remains a speculative thesis rather than a confirmed setup.

Buyout Speculation Angle

With a market cap now around $2.4 billion, some investors are asking whether Lucid’s technology and IP assets are worth more than the stock price implies. The company holds partnerships with Aston Martin, Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), Nuro, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), and a robotaxi deployment is planned for later this year.