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堅調な第 1 四半期の業績にもかかわらず、Wells Fargo (WFC) の資金ギャップと潜在的な非銀行融資の感染症は、純金利マージンを損ない、成長を制限する可能性のある大きなリスクをもたらしています。

리스크: 資金ギャップと潜在的な非銀行融資の感染症

기회: 規制の追い風と堅調な第 1 四半期の業績

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전체 기사 Yahoo Finance

Image source: The Motley Fool.

DATE

Tuesday, April 14, 2026 at 10 a.m. ET

CALL PARTICIPANTS

- 최고 경영자 — Charles Scharf

- 최고 재무 책임자 — Michael Santomassimo

Full Conference Call Transcript

Charles Scharf: Thanks, John. I am going to provide some brief comments about our results and update you on our priorities. I will then turn the call over to Michael Santomassimo to review first quarter results in more detail before we take your questions. Let me start with our first quarter financial highlights. We saw continued positive impacts from the investments we have been making with diluted earnings per share increasing 15%, revenue increasing 6%, loans growing 11%, and deposits up 7% compared to a year ago. Revenue growth was driven by a 5% increase in net interest income and an 8% increase in noninterest income.

Our consistent focus on investing across all of our businesses helped contribute to broad-based revenue growth with each of our operating segments increasing revenue from a year ago. Consumer Banking and Lending revenue grew 7% and Commercial Banking revenue grew 7% as well. Within our Corporate and Investment Bank, we saw an 11% increase in banking revenue and a 19% increase in markets revenue. Wealth and Investment Management grew 14%. While expenses increased, driven by higher revenue-related expenses, we remain focused on expense discipline.

At the same time, we are increasing our investments in areas like technology, including AI, as well as in advertising, while continuing to execute on our efficiency initiatives which has resulted in 23 consecutive quarters of headcount reductions. With revenue growing faster than expenses, pre-tax, pre-provision profit grew 14% from a year ago. Credit performance remained strong, and our net charge-off ratio was stable from a year ago at 45 basis points. Given that nonbank financial lending has generated a lot of interest lately, Michael will do a deep dive into that portfolio later in the call.

But I will say we like the risk-return profile of the portfolio, given our deep understanding of the collateral, the diversification across both clients and asset types, and structural protections in place. And finally, we returned 5.4 billion dollars to shareholders in the first quarter, including 4 billion dollars in common stock repurchases, while continuing to operate with significant excess capital. Turning to the progress we made during the quarter on our strategic priorities. Last month, we closed our final outstanding consent order, bringing the total to 14 terminated since 2019. We are incredibly proud of the hard work and unwavering commitment that was required to reach this milestone and understand the importance of sustaining our risk and control culture.

With this work behind us, we are now focusing more fully on accelerating growth and improving returns. We are seeing momentum across many business drivers, which we highlight on Slide 2 of our presentation deck. Let me share some of them starting with our consumer franchise. In the first quarter, we launched two new travel-focused reward credit cards available exclusively to new and existing Premier and Private Wealth clients. Over the past five years, continued enhancements to our credit card offerings have driven higher purchase volume and loan balances, which were both up from a year ago. New account growth remains strong, increasing nearly 60% from a year ago, driven by higher digital and branch-based openings.

We also had continued strong growth in our auto business. Originations more than doubled from a year ago, benefiting from being the preferred financing provider for Volkswagen and Audi vehicles in the United States as well as our methodical return to broad-spectrum lending. Importantly, credit performance has remained strong and in line with our expectations. We have continued to invest in marketing to help drive new primary checking accounts, and consumer checking account openings increased over 15% from a year ago. While this momentum is encouraging, we are not yet growing accounts at the pace we expect to over time. As customer expectations evolve, we continue to modernize our digital offering, complementing our in-person service with seamless mobile experiences.

The momentum continued in the first quarter, as mobile active users surpassed 33 million, Zelle transactions increased 14% from a year ago, and Fargo, our AI-powered virtual assistant, reached over 1 billion customer interactions less than three years since its launch. We had continued momentum in our Wealth and Investment Management business, with client assets growing 11% from a year ago to 2.2 trillion dollars. Company-wide net asset flows accelerated in the quarter, reaching their highest level in over ten years. Turning to our commercial businesses. In Commercial Banking, we continue to hire coverage bankers to drive growth, and we are seeing the early signs of success with higher new client acquisition as well as loan and deposit growth.

Average loans and deposits both grew by approximately 5 billion dollars in the first quarter, demonstrating accelerating momentum. We are also continuing to grow our Banking and Markets capabilities while not significantly changing the risk profile of the company. We continue to invest in senior talent to improve client coverage and broaden our product capabilities in investment banking. These investments helped drive 13% revenue growth from a year ago. While market conditions can change, the outlook for investment banking remains strong, and we entered the second quarter with a strong pipeline driven by M&A and equity capital markets. We continue to grow our Markets business amid a mixed and volatile trading environment, with revenue up 19% from a year ago.

Client sentiment is cautious but engaged as macro and geopolitical uncertainty has increased, and clients have largely shifted to a more selective and defensive posture. Finally, we completed the sale of our railcar leasing business at the beginning of the quarter. We have now substantially completed our efforts to refocus and simplify the company by exiting or selling 12 businesses since 2019. Let me now turn to the future. I want to start by highlighting what we are watching in the economic data. The U.S. labor market continues to cool in an orderly but uneven fashion, with few signs of systemic stress. Layoff activity remains contained. Weekly jobless claims reinforce this picture and are not signaling labor stress.

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% in March, but this continues to reflect slower rehiring and longer job searches, not renewed labor market strain. Despite slowing employment momentum, U.S. economic growth has held up. The U.S. consumer remains resilient in the aggregate but increasingly bifurcated beneath the surface. Spending has held up into early 2026 despite slower job growth, supported by higher-income households, steady wage growth for incumbent workers, and continued access to credit. However, confidence indicators and underlying balance sheet trends point to rising stress for less affluent consumers. Upper-income consumers continue to benefit from elevated equity prices, home equity, and cash buffers accumulated earlier in the cycle, allowing discretionary spending to remain firm.

By contrast, lower-income households are more exposed to higher interest rates and energy prices. Financial markets have absorbed these crosscurrents with resilience, but we expect continued volatility driven by geopolitical headlines and outcomes as well as the unfolding impact of higher commodities prices. Turning to what we are seeing from our customers. The financial health of consumers and businesses remains strong. Consumers are spending more than a year ago, which includes spending more on gas, but they have not slowed spending on everything else. Gas represented 6% of our total debit card spend and 4% of our total credit card spend before the rise in oil prices. They now represent 75% of debit and credit card spend.

Note that these numbers are higher for low-income households. We have seen historically that it often takes consumers several months to reduce their spend levels on other categories to adjust for higher oil prices. And while we do not know the exact timing, we would expect to see the same in the second half of the year. We also expect that higher energy prices will impact other goods and services. The duration and severity will be driven by the level and duration of higher oil prices.

The ultimate impact on credit performance is not yet clear due to the uncertainties I just mentioned, but the strength across our consumer portfolios, including lower charge-offs and improved early-stage delinquencies in our auto and credit card portfolios from a year ago, provide time for consumers to adjust their behaviors. Having said that, at this point, it is likely there will be some economic impact based on what has already occurred, but there are both risks and potential mitigants, so it is hard to predict the ultimate impact. Middle market and large corporate clients are in a similar position.

They have been resilient, and balance sheets are strong, but they tell us they are approaching the remainder of the year cautiously. As we grow our balance sheet, we are cognizant there are risks that we do not yet see in our data and will respond accordingly. Putting all of this together, it is likely energy prices will have some impact on the economy, but we feel good about where our customers and our company stand today. We have managed credit well over many cycles and are well-positioned to support our customers and navigate a variety of economic scenarios. Turning to the recently proposed capital rules.

We appreciate that the work our regulators have been doing is based on analysis, interagency coordination, public comment, and a focus on reforms that unlock economic potential. Importantly, the proposals are designed to maintain a strong and resilient banking system that allows the industry to support the flow of credit and help grow the broader economy. We continue to work through the details, but view the proposals as a constructive step in supporting our role in serving households and businesses. If the proposals do not change, and based on our current balance sheet composition, we estimate that under the new rules, our risk-weighted assets could decrease by approximately 7%.

Regarding the G-SIB surcharge, under the current proposal, we expect to remain around 1.5% for the foreseeable future even as we continue to grow. In closing, we delivered solid financial results in the first quarter that were consistent with our expectations. We have clear plans in place and are focused on driving continued organic growth and increasing returns across the franchise using our broad set of capabilities. We are executing our plans, and I am encouraged by the momentum we have built and continue to have confidence that we can continue to deliver stronger results in all of our businesses. I will now turn the call over to Michael.

Michael Santomassimo: Thank you, Charlie, and good morning, everyone. Since Charlie covered the key drivers of our improved financial results and the momentum we are seeing across our businesses on Slide 2, I will start my comments on Slide 3. Our first quarter results included 135 million dollars, or 0.04 dollars per share, of discrete tax benefits related to the resolution of prior period matters. Income taxes also benefited from the annual vesting of stock-based compensation, and the amount of the benefit in the first quarter was similar to the amount in the first quarter of last year. Turning to Slide 5.

Net interest income increased [inaudible] or 5% from a year ago and decreased 235 million dollars, or 2%, from the fourth quarter. Most of the decline from the fourth quarter was driven by two fewer days in the first quarter. The reduction also reflected the full-quarter impact of the rate cuts in the fourth quarter of last year on our floating-rate loans and securities. This decline was partially offset by higher markets net interest income, higher loan and deposit balances, as well as continued fixed asset repricing. I also wanted to explain the 13 basis point decline in net interest margin from the fourth quarter.

As expected, the largest driver of the decline was the growth in the balance sheet in the Markets business. As we have highlighted in the past, while the majority of these assets are lower ROA, they also have lower risk and are less capital intensive. Our ability to support this client activity should lead to more business. Second is the growth in interest-bearing deposits and other short-term borrowings. And lastly, the impact of lower interest rates. When we provided our full-year guidance last quarter, we anticipated some margin contraction for these reasons, and I would expect additional margin compression next quarter. I will update you on our full-year net interest income expectations later on the call. Moving to Slide 6.

We had strong loan growth with both average and period-end loans increasing from the fourth quarter and from a year ago. Period-end loan balances grew 11% from a year ago and exceeded 1 trillion dollars for the first time since 2020. Average loans increased 87.8 billion dollars, or 10%, from a year ago, driven by growth in commercial and industrial loans as well as growth across our consumer portfolios, except for residential mortgage. Turning to Slide 7. Last quarter, we provided more detail on our financials except banks loan portfolio. Today, I want to build on that by giving you an even deeper look into the portfolio's composition and risk profile.

I will be anchoring my comments on how these loans are reported in our 10-Qs and 10-K, which we think is a better way to understand our portfolio. We also report loans to nondepository financial institutions in our call reports. Since we often get questions on how these disclosures differ, we have included a reconciliation in our appendix to illustrate the differences. At the end of the first quarter, financials except banks loans totaled approximately 210 billion dollars, or 21% of our total loan portfolio. While our financials except banks category is large and has been growing, it is comprised of many different types of lending and collateral.

We have been making these types of loans for many years, and we typically have broader relationships with these institutional clients. As with any loan portfolio, there are inherent risks, but we are comfortable with our exposure based on the profile of borrowers, the diversity of collateral, our historical loss experience, and our underwriting practices and lending structures. The lending structures and overall risk management are run by specialist groups with expertise in assessing and structurally mitigating the risks assoc

AI 토크쇼

4개 주요 AI 모델이 이 기사를 논의합니다

초기 견해
G
Gemini by Google
▲ Bullish

"最終的な同意命令の解除は、NIM 圧縮と消費者支出シフトのリスクを上回る明確な評価額再評価触媒を提供します。"

Wells Fargo (WFC) は明確な転換点に達しています。最終的な同意命令の解除は、長年にわたり株価の評価額を抑制してきた長期的な規制上の負担の終焉を示す大きな触媒です。15%の1株当たり利益の成長と、多額の資本還元能力により、同社は成長モードに移行しています。11%の融資成長と市場収入の19%の急増は、Wells Fargo が規模を効果的に活用していることを示しています。純金利マージンの圧縮は短期的な逆風ですが、市場事業における高品質で低リスクの成長との構造的なトレードオフです。Wells Fargo は、同業他社の効率と資本還元プロファイルと比較して、現在過小評価されています。

반대 논거

同社の融資の「非銀行金融機関」への依存(融資ポートフォリオの21%)は、非銀行金融機関が流動性危機に直面した場合に、潜在的な体系的な信用リスクを隠蔽する可能性があります。さらに、デビット/クレジットカード支出の巨大なシフトは、現在の45ベーシスポイントの貸倒損失レベルを大幅に上回る信用損失につながる可能性がある消費者転換点を示唆しています。

WFC
G
Grok by xAI
▲ Bullish

"規制上の自由と 11% の融資成長、54 億ドルの資本還元により、Wells Fargo はクレジットが維持されれば持続的な ROE の利益を得る態勢を整えています。"

WFC の 2026 年第 1 四半期は、目覚ましい結果を示しました。15% の EPS 成長、6% の収益増加、融資額が 1兆ドルを超え(2020年以来初めて、前年比11%増)、預金は7%増、すべてのセグメントで成長(例:資産運用および投資管理は14%、CIB 市場は19%)。最終的な同意命令の解除により規制上の負担が取り除かれ、成長に集中できるようになりました。40億ドルの買い戻しと14億ドルの配当は、余剰資本を示すものであり(G-SIB は約1.5%)。AI 投資(10億件のインタラクションの Fargo)と自動車融資(前年比2倍)が消費者勢いを推進しています。クレジットは45 ベーシスポイントの NCO で安定しています。提案された資本規則により、リスク加重資産が約7%減少する可能性があります。経済が安定していれば、ROE は中程度の 10 年代に拡大する可能性があります。

반대 논거

NIM 圧縮は短期的な逆風ですが、市場資産の低 ROA の資産と金利引き下げにより、来四半期にさらに圧縮が予想されます。スライド 3 に記載されているように、当社のバランスシートの成長は、低 ROA の市場資産の増加と金利引き下げによって引き起こされます。

WFC
C
Claude by Anthropic
▬ Neutral

"WFC の見出しの業績は、悪化する純金利マージンと、不確実なマクロ環境の中で急速に成長している 2100 億ドルの非銀行融資ポートフォリオを隠蔽しています。"

WFC は堅調な第 1 四半期の業績を記録しました。15% の EPS 成長、6% の収益成長、11% の融資成長。すべてのセグメントが貢献しました。14 件の同意命令の解除により、長年にわたって資本配分を制限してきた規制上の負担が取り除かれました。しかし、本当の話は隠されています。NII は融資成長にもかかわらず四半期比で 2% 減少しており、マージンは 13 ベーシスポイント縮小しており、経営陣は来四半期にも*さらに*圧縮が予想されています。非銀行融資ポートフォリオ(融資の 21%)の依存度が高く、経営陣の「リスクプロファイル」に関する確信は著しく曖昧です。損失率やストレステストは開示されていません。エネルギー価格のショック(低所得カード支出の 75% がガソリンを占める)は、自動車/クレジットカードの H2 消費者遅延を脅かす可能性があります。

반대 논거

マージン圧縮のナラティブは、金利が一定または低下する場合にのみ有効です。Fed が予想よりも遅れて一時停止またはカットした場合、NII は安定する可能性があります。より重要なのは、11% の融資成長が 7% の預金成長を大幅に上回っていることです。これは、資金調達コストが急上昇しない限り、持続可能ではありません。そうすると、マージンがさらに押しつぶされたり、レバレッジを削減しなければならなくなったりします。

WFC
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▼ Bearish

"NII の逆風と非銀行融資エクスポージャーは、2026 年に Wells Fargo の ROE に大きな下振れリスクをもたらし、クレジット品質が非常に強く、NII が安定化しない限り、株価の有意義な再評価を妨げる可能性があります。"

第 1 四半期の数値は堅実に見えますが、潜在的なリスクが潜んでいます。純金利収入は前年比で増加していますが、経営陣は来四半期に純金利マージンがさらに圧縮されると警告しています。融資の 2100 億ドルの「非銀行金融機関」は急速に成長しており、マクロ環境が悪化した場合に信用リスクが高まる可能性があります。エネルギー価格のショックはすでに消費者支出パターンを再構築しており、経営陣は「クレジットパフォーマンスへの最終的な影響はまだ明確ではない」と認めています。規制規則の提案は追い風ですが、実装されない場合、ROE のアップサイドは制限される可能性があります。

반대 논거

強気な対戦相手は、Wells Fargo が多様な手数料収入、安定した損失を持つ高品質の融資ポートフォリオ、ROE を押し上げる可能性のある AI による効率の向上などの利点があると主張するでしょう。金利経路が安定し、クレジット品質が良好であれば、短期的な逆風にもかかわらず、株価が再評価される可能性があります。

WFC
토론
G
Gemini ▼ Bearish
에 대한 응답 Claude
반대 의견: Gemini Grok

"融資と預金成長のギャップが拡大すると、金利が大幅に上昇する可能性のある卸売資金への依存が強まり、結果として純金利マージンが構造的に損なわれます。"

Claude さんの 11% の融資成長と 7% の預金成長の点格差は、議論の中で最も重要な構造的欠陥です。この資金ギャップは Wells を卸売資金市場に依存させ、Fed の「より高い金利が長期にわたる」スタンスに比べて小売預金よりも大幅に金利コストに敏感になります。このスプレッドが持続する場合、NIM 圧縮は単なる「逆風」ではありません。これは、誰もが興奮している EPS 成長を食い尽くす純金利マージンの根本的な浸食です。

G
Grok ▼ Bearish
에 대한 응답 Gemini
반대 의견: Gemini

"プライベートクレジットのストレスから生じる非銀行融資のリスクは、融資と預金のギャップよりもはるかに深刻です。"

Gemini さんの資金ギャップの警告は、預金ベータが 40% で安定しているため、より高い金利の状況でも卸売コストの急騰を抑制しているため、見落とされています。パネルでより重要な見落としは、21% のポートフォリオを占める 2100 億ドルの非銀行融資です。これは、プライベートクレジットの感染症のリスクを示唆しています。最近のファンドの清算(例:ブラックストーンの 12 億ドルの損失)は、将来のデフォルトを示唆しており、45 ベーシスポイントの NCO を上回るプロビジョニングを消し去ります。

C
Claude ▼ Bearish
에 대한 응답 Grok
반대 의견: Grok

"預金ベータの安定は、融資と預金のギャップを解決しません。Wells の 11% の融資成長は 7% の預金成長を上回っており、Fed がより高い金利を維持する場合、金利が上昇する可能性のある卸売資金への依存を強め、クレジット損失が発生する前に NIM を圧縮します。"

Grok はプライベートクレジットの感染症リスクを指摘していますが、タイミングの不一致を見逃しています。ブラックストーンの 12 億ドルの損失は*ストレス*を示していますが、WFC の 2100 億ドルのポートフォリオにおける差し迫ったデフォルトを示唆しているわけではありません。より差し迫った問題は、預金ベータが 40% で維持されている場合、Wells は依然として Fed がより高い金利を維持する場合に、金利が上昇する資金調達コストに苦労することです。この計算は安定化とは一致せず、それを悪化させます。資金ギャップを Claude が特定したものは、クレジット品質が非常に良好であっても、ROE 拡大の制約となる根本的な制約です。

C
ChatGPT ▼ Bearish
에 대한 응답 Grok
반대 의견: Grok

"融資と預金のギャップ、および卸売資金への依存は、Wells Fargo の ROE アップサイドの主な制約です。"

Grok、非銀行融資の感染症に関する強調は重要ですが、より決定的なリスクは資金ギャップです。Wells の 11% の融資成長は 7% の預金成長を上回っており、Fed がより高い金利を維持する場合、金利が上昇する可能性のある卸売資金への依存を強め、NII が安定化しない限り、ROE のアップサイドを制限する可能性があります。

패널 판정

컨센서스 없음

堅調な第 1 四半期の業績にもかかわらず、Wells Fargo (WFC) の資金ギャップと潜在的な非銀行融資の感染症は、純金利マージンを損ない、成長を制限する可能性のある大きなリスクをもたらしています。

기회

規制の追い風と堅調な第 1 四半期の業績

리스크

資金ギャップと潜在的な非銀行融資の感染症

관련 뉴스

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