SpaceX IPO có thể bị trì hoãn sau tháng 6? Đây là những gì người đặt cược trên Kalshi và Polymarket nghĩ

As Elon Musk-led SpaceX prepares for its IPO, traders on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the listing to be delayed beyond its planned June timeline.

90% Chance SpaceX IPO Gets Delayed

91% of the bettors on Polymarket on Sunday thought that the IPO would take place before September 30, while over 94% of the bets were placed on the IPO not happening before December 31. On Kalshi, bettors thought that there was a 92% and 93% chance that the IPO would take place in November and December, respectively.

Interestingly, according to the contract, there was a 97% chance that the IPO would take place before June 1st next year.

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On the other hand, the contract on Polymarket suggests bettors think there’s only a 46% chance the IPO takes place before June 30, while on Kalshi, bettors thought there was a 66% chance it took place before the end of June.

IPO Concerns

Analysts have cautioned investors against participating in the IPO, citing concerns with the commercial space flight giant’s valuation, saying that participants in the IPO wouldn't be able to generate returns on their investments at a $2 trillion market cap.

Meanwhile, TV host Jim Cramer opined that the IPO could also trigger a Tesla Inc. sell-off, following a bearish J.P. Morgan analyst’s "sell" rating on the stock. The analyst also predicted a 60% decline in Tesla’s stock value. Cramer said that the rating from the analyst could trigger people to sell off Tesla "to buy SpaceX."

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Elon Musk Rubbishes $2 Trillion Talks

CEO Musk also denied that SpaceX was targeting a valuation of upwards of $2 trillion with the IPO. He had confirmed a $1.75 trillion valuation for the company in a social media post. SpaceX reportedly aims to raise over $75 billion with the listing.

What could help boost the IPO are the series of rule changes adopted by the Nasdaq 100 index, including an expedited entry and counting listed and unlisted shares when calculating a company’s market capitalization. The company was reportedly leaning towards a Nasdaq listing.

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