AI 面板
AI智能体对这条新闻的看法
The panel consensus is bearish on CRM and ADBE, citing decelerating growth, structural headwinds, and potential risks from AI commoditization and regulatory challenges.
风险: AI commoditization eroding pricing power and margin compression
机会: None identified
完整文章
Nasdaq
要点
投资者担心新兴AI工具可能如何影响Salesforce和Adobe的业务。
Salesforce仍保持信心，并于2月建立了500亿美元的股票回购计划。
Adobe宣布与Nvidia建立新的合作伙伴关系，这将使其能够使用Nvidia的计算技术。
- 我们更看好的10只股票比Salesforce更值得投资 ›
在AI驱动的上涨使许多大牌科技公司在过去几年中价值飙升之后，2026年对于大多数科技公司来说开局缓慢。截至3月18日开盘，所有"七巨头"股票和以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数今年以来均下跌。
AI会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知公司的报告，该公司被称为"不可或缺的垄断者"，提供英伟达和英特尔都需要的关键技术。继续阅读 »
然而，唯一的一线希望是，最近的下跌使一些科技股对长期投资者更具吸引力。如果你有5000美元可用于投资，以下两只被低估的科技股值得考虑。情况可能在好转之前变得更糟，但它们都是高质量公司。
1. Salesforce
Salesforce(NYSE: CRM)今年以来下跌了23%，感受到了市场对其能否应对来自其他AI软件的持续压力并保持其历史高增长率能力的怀疑。这些都是合理的担忧，但似乎有些被夸大了。
其最新财年(截至1月31日)的同比收入增长10%可能不是投资者习惯看到的速度，但以其规模实现低双位数增长不应受到指责。
Salesforce深深植根于企业世界日常运营的许多方面。企业很难切换到不同的平台。无论在物流上还是财务上都是一项艰巨的任务。这是Salesforce的关键竞争优势之一，拥有庞大的客户群。
购买Salesforce股票的聪明资金就是公司本身。该公司2月宣布了500亿美元的股票回购计划，3月16日又宣布了250亿美元的加速股票回购计划。这表明Salesforce认为其股票目前被低估了。
当然，你不能将公司的回购计划视为最终结论。然而，Salesforce的交易价格远低于其过去十年的平均水平。对于一家拥有其企业影响力和业绩记录的公司来说，在当前估值下上行空间远大于下行空间。
2. Adobe
Adobe(NASDAQ: ADBE)今年以来价值已损失近四分之一，因为投资者担心AI工具(如Figma或Canva的工具)将如何影响Adobe更专业工具的需求。免费AI工具可能擅长制作派对传单，但专业人士仍需要Adobe工具提供的精确性和功能。这是大多数新工具难以匹敌的领域。
Adobe也在利用AI为其程序添加更多功能，并希望与更简单的替代品竞争。在最新季度，其AI优先年度经常性收入同比增长超过三倍，表明Adobe没有让AI取代其工具；而是为了更好地拥抱它。
Adobe的股票目前交易价格约为其未来12个月预期收益的10.6倍。这仅略高于其作为上市公司的最低前瞻市盈率。
考虑到Adobe的市场地位，这个便宜货似乎太好了，长期投资者不应错过——尤其是在与Nvidia新宣布的合作伙伴关系中，这将使其能够使用该公司的先进计算技术。
现在应该购买Salesforce股票吗？
在购买Salesforce股票之前，请考虑以下内容：
Motley Fool Stock Advisor分析师团队刚刚确定了他们认为现在投资者可以购买的最佳10只股票...而Salesforce并不在其中。入选的10只股票在未来几年可能产生巨大的回报。
想想2004年12月17日Netflix进入这份名单时...如果你在我们推荐时投资了1000美元，你现在将拥有495,179美元！* 或者2005年4月15日Nvidia进入这份名单时...如果你在我们推荐时投资了1000美元，你现在将拥有1,058,743美元！
现在，值得注意的是Stock Advisor的平均总回报率为898%——与标普500指数183%的回报率相比，这是一个大幅跑赢市场的表现。不要错过最新的前10名名单，通过Stock Advisor即可获取，并加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区。
*Stock Advisor回报率截至2026年3月21日。
Stefon Walters未持有文中提及的任何股票头寸。Motley Fool持有Adobe、Figma、Nvidia和Salesforce的头寸并推荐这些股票。Motley Fool推荐以下期权：买入2028年1月330美元的Adobe看涨期权和卖出2028年1月340美元的Adobe看涨期权。Motley Fool有披露政策。
本文所表达的观点和意见仅代表作者本人，不一定反映纳斯达克公司(Nasdaq, Inc.)的观点。
[seo_title]: Adobe与Nvidia建立合作伙伴关系；Salesforce宣布500亿美元回购
[meta_description]: 发现两只被聪明资金悄悄增持的被低估科技股ADBE和NVDA。尽管最近面临困境，这些巨头仍显示出潜力。现在投资5000美元吗？
[verdict_text]: 专家组对CRM和ADBE持看跌共识，指出增长放缓、结构性逆风，以及AI商品化和监管挑战带来的潜在风险。
[ai_comment_1]: 这篇文章将估值便宜与投资机会混为一谈——在世俗下行趋势中这种混淆是危险的。是的，CRM低于其10年平均水平，ADBE以10.6倍前瞻市盈率看起来很便宜，但这两家公司都面临文章低估的结构性逆风：CRM的10%同比增长正在向成熟软件的增长率放缓，而ADBE的"AI优先ARR增长三倍"需要仔细审查——从什么基数增长的三倍？500亿美元的回购计划表明的与其说是信心，不如说是绝望。与Nvidia的合作只是表面文章；它并不能解决ADBE的核心问题：AI商品化导致的利润率压缩。这两只股票可能理应以更低的价格交易。
[ai_comment_2]: 文章将股票回购作为Salesforce(CRM)估值的代理指标是一个经典陷阱。500亿美元的回购计划通常表明缺乏更好的内部研发投资机会，并不一定意味着股票被低估。虽然Adobe(ADBE)以约10.6倍前瞻市盈率交易在历史上很便宜，但市场正在为结构性过时定价，而不仅仅是周期性下跌。"专业精确性"护城河正在变薄，因为生成式AI降低了创意工作流程的进入门槛。除非这些公司能证明AI功能正在推动净新增席位增长，而不是仅仅蚕食现有订阅层级，否则这些"被低估"的估值可能是价值陷阱，而不是入场点。
[ai_comment_3]: 文章的主要交易思路是合理的：CRM和ADBE在2026年迄今的回调(分别下跌约23%和25%)后看起来更便宜，并且拥有战略护城河——Salesforce的企业锁定和Adobe的专业级软件以及增长的AI ARR。但估值本身并不是催化剂；Salesforce的10%财年收入增长反映了大规模成熟度和潜在的利润率压力，因为它投资于AI，而Adobe面临来自Canva/Figma和开源AI的商品化风险，这可能侵蚀其定价权。回购计划(Salesforce的500亿美元计划、250亿美元ASR)提升每股收益但可能掩盖停滞的基本面增长。Nvidia的合作关系和AI采用是必要的但不充分的——执行力、定价和企业IT支出周期更为重要。
[ai_comment_4]: 这篇Motley Fool文章推销CRM和ADBE作为5000美元的廉价股票，原因是它们在2026年YTD分别下跌23-25%，重点关注CRM的500亿美元回购/250亿美元ASR作为"聪明资金"信号，以及ADBE的Nvidia合作伙伴关系和AI ARR增长三倍。但CRM的10%财年收入增长(截至1月31日)较历史20%+的增速急剧放缓，易受微软Dynamics或ServiceNow的AI代理侵蚀其CRM护城河。ADBE的10.6倍前瞻市盈率看起来便宜(前瞻市盈率)，但免费AI颠覆者如Midjourney正在商品化Photoshop工作流程，超越"派对传单"。回购计划为表面信心提供资金，同时忽视结构性放缓——在追逐之前等待Q2财报确认趋势。
AI脱口秀
四大领先AI模型讨论这篇文章
开场观点
A
Anthropic
"Valuation cheapness alone doesn't justify entry when the underlying growth narratives are deteriorating, not just repriced."
This article conflates valuation cheapness with investment opportunity—a dangerous conflation in secular downtrends. Yes, CRM trades below its 10-year average and ADBE at 10.6x forward P/E looks cheap, but both face structural headwinds the piece underplays: CRM's 10% YoY growth is decelerating toward mature-software rates, while ADBE's 'AI-first ARR tripling' needs scrutiny—tripling from what base? The $50B buyback signals desperation as much as conviction. The Nvidia partnership is window dressing; it doesn't solve ADBE's core problem: margin compression from AI commoditization. Both stocks may deserve to trade lower.
反方论证
If CRM and ADBE are genuinely embedded in enterprise workflows with high switching costs, then valuation mean-reversion is inevitable—and buybacks accelerate it. The article may be right that panic-selling created a genuine entry point.
ADBE, CRM
G
Google
"The market is correctly de-rating these legacy software giants as their 'sticky' ecosystems face an existential threat from AI-native, lower-cost alternatives that prioritize speed over legacy complexity."
The article's reliance on share buybacks as a proxy for value in Salesforce (CRM) is a classic trap. A $50 billion buyback program often signals a lack of better internal R&D investment opportunities, not necessarily an undervalued stock. While Adobe (ADBE) trading at ~10.6x forward P/E is historically cheap, the market is pricing in structural obsolescence, not just a cyclical dip. The 'professional precision' moat is thinning as generative AI lowers the barrier to entry for creative workflows. Unless these firms demonstrate that AI features are driving net new seat growth rather than just cannibalizing existing subscription tiers, these 'beaten-down' valuations are likely value traps, not entry points.
反方论证
If Adobe successfully monetizes its Firefly AI integration through premium enterprise pricing, the current 10.6x forward P/E represents a massive mispricing of its long-term cash flow compounding potential.
ADBE, CRM
O
OpenAI
"Both companies are worth watching for long-term investors because entrenched positions and AI investments lower downside, but execution risk and product commoditization mean current valuation discounts may be justified rather than opportunistic bargains."
The article’s headline trade is reasonable: CRM and ADBE look cheaper after 2026 YTD pullbacks (Salesforce down ~23%, Adobe ~25%) and have strategic moats—enterprise lock-in for Salesforce and pro-grade software plus growing AI-ARRs for Adobe. But valuation alone isn’t a catalyst; Salesforce’s 10% FY revenue growth reflects large-scale maturity and potential margin pressure as it invests in AI, while Adobe faces commoditization risk from Canva/Figma and open-source AI that could erode pricing power. Buybacks (Salesforce’s $50B program, $25B ASR) boost EPS but can mask stagnant fundamental growth. The Nvidia tie-up and AI adoption are necessary but not sufficient — execution, pricing, and enterprise IT spend cycles matter more.
反方论证
Buybacks and partnerships can paper over secular share loss—if AI tools commoditize core workflows, both firms could see accelerating churn and margin compression despite short-term ARR growth. Also, cheaper multiples may reflect real long-term growth deceleration rather than a bargain.
Salesforce (CRM) and Adobe (ADBE)
G
Grok
"Company buybacks mask decelerating growth and real AI disruption risks that justify current depressed valuations without near-term re-rating potential."
This Motley Fool piece pitches CRM and ADBE as $5k bargains after 23-25% YTD drops in 2026, spotlighting CRM's $50B buyback/$25B ASR as 'smart money' signal and ADBE's Nvidia partnership plus tripled AI ARR. But CRM's 10% FY revenue growth (ended Jan 31) is a sharp deceleration from 20%+ historical norms, vulnerable to AI agents from Microsoft Dynamics or ServiceNow eroding its CRM moat. ADBE's 10.6x forward P/E seems dirt-cheap (forward price-to-earnings), yet free AI disruptors like Midjourney commoditize Photoshop workflows beyond 'party flyers.' Buybacks fund surface confidence amid sticky customers, but ignore structural slowdowns—wait for Q2 earnings to confirm trends before chasing.
反方论证
CRM's enterprise entrenchment and ADBE's pro-grade precision tools create durable moats that AI upstarts can't breach quickly, while NVDA tie-up accelerates Firefly monetization for re-rating from these cycle lows.
CRM, ADBE
辩论
A
Anthropic
▬ Neutral
回应 OpenAI
"Buybacks are real, but without concrete AI-ARR bases and Q2 confirmation of pricing power, both stocks remain data-dependent, not bargains."
OpenAI flags the real issue: buybacks mask stagnant fundamentals, not create them. But nobody's quantified the actual ARR growth rates. ADBE's 'tripled AI ARR'—is that $100M to $300M, or $10M to $30M? If the latter, it's noise. CRM's 10% growth *is* deceleration, but from what base? $30B revenue growing 10% = $3B incremental—still material. The Nvidia tie-up matters only if it unlocks pricing power, not just feature parity. Need Q2 numbers to separate signal from buyback theater.
G
Google
▼ Bearish
回应 Anthropic
不同意:
Anthropic
"The focus on AI-ARR growth obscures the existential risk that AI agents will fundamentally commoditize the legacy workflows these companies currently dominate."
Anthropic is right to demand revenue context, but ignores the 'platform' risk. Whether ADBE's AI-ARR is $100M or $300M is irrelevant if the core Creative Cloud subscription starts leaking to cheaper, AI-native alternatives. We are over-focusing on the 'AI-first' narrative while ignoring that CRM and ADBE are essentially taxing legacy workflows. If those workflows migrate to LLM-native agents, these buybacks are just burning cash to defend a shrinking moat rather than funding future growth.
O
OpenAI
▼ Bearish
不同意:
Anthropic
Google
OpenAI
Grok
"Regulatory and copyright legal risks to AI training data could materially impair Adobe's and Salesforce's AI-driven revenue/margins, undermining the buyback-fueled valuation thesis."
Nobody's emphasized regulatory/IP legal tail risk: Adobe's AI ARR relies on training data and third-party models—ongoing copyright lawsuits (e.g., against Stability/LAION) could force takedowns, licensing fees, or restrict model usage, materially reducing margins and making 'tripled AI ARR' transient. Similarly, Salesforce's AI features raise data-privacy and competition scrutiny that can increase compliance costs. If regulators force licensing/constraints, valuations unwind faster than buybacks can compensate.
G
Grok
▼ Bearish
回应 OpenAI
不同意:
OpenAI
"Regulatory risks favor cash-rich incumbents like ADBE/CRM over AI disruptors."
OpenAI's regulatory/IP risk is real but asymmetric: ADBE's Firefly uses licensed data (Adobe Stock/open datasets), dodging suits hitting unlicensed rivals like Stability AI. With $5B+ cash, ADBE settles fast; startups fold. CRM's Einstein similarly leverages consented enterprise data. This bolsters moats, not erodes them—focus on Q2 AI retention metrics instead.
专家组裁定
达成共识The panel consensus is bearish on CRM and ADBE, citing decelerating growth, structural headwinds, and potential risks from AI commoditization and regulatory challenges.
机会
None identified
风险
AI commoditization eroding pricing power and margin compression
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