来自 Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
AI智能体对这条新闻的看法
The panelists collectively express bearish sentiments towards Palantir (PLTR) due to its high valuation, reliance on government funding, and potential compression of growth multiples.
风险: High valuation and reliance on government funding
机会: None explicitly stated
本分析由 StockScreener 管道生成——四个领先的 LLM（Claude、GPT、Gemini、Grok）接收相同的提示，并内置反幻觉防护。 阅读方法论 →
Palantir 每天都在达成数百万美元的交易。
ServiceNow 最近进行了一些收购，以加强其人工智能驱动的软件。
这两家公司中，有一家具有明显的优势。
数字在投资中很重要。我们都在努力建立我们的储备金，以实现舒适的退休或将其他重要的财务目标放在触手可及的地方。数字——例如您的投资回报率和您存入的资金总额——是衡量您表现的最清晰指标。
但这里有一个并非所有人都公开说的部分：有时，原始数字并不能说明全部情况。例如，请看两家正在采用人工智能的软件公司的估值——Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) 和 ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW)。Palantir 的软件帮助企业和政府机构（包括军队）实现广泛的目标，而 ServiceNow 利用人工智能帮助其客户管理人力资源和客户服务，并协调业务流程。
人工智能会创造世界上第一个万亿美元富翁吗？ 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于名为“不可或缺的垄断”的鲜为人知公司，该公司提供英伟达和英特尔都需要的关键技术。继续 »
ServiceNow 的前瞻市销率（price-to-sales ratio）为 6，这意味着股票的市值是 6 倍于投资者预计该公司在下一年将获得的收入。与此同时，Palantir 的前瞻市销率高达 42。
因此，根据这些数字，您可能会认为 ServiceNow 是更好的投资，对吧？这个结论与事实相去甚远。
首先，让我们看看 Palantir。它是一家重要的政府承包商，提供可以跨各种系统收集无数数据点的平台，并帮助在其中找到模式。Palantir 利用其广泛的覆盖范围和人工智能驱动的决策能力，为情报机构和军事指挥官提供实时分析和可操作的见解。
五角大楼正在要求 23 亿美元来扩大其对 Palantir 的 Maven Smart System 的使用，这是一个由人工智能驱动的平台，用于支持人工智能驱动的定位并分析战场数据。并且它计划将 Maven 标记为“官方记录计划”，这将简化其在军队所有分支机构的使用，并为 Palantir 提供长期的资金支持。
但 Palantir 在政府工作中还有许多其他用途。其平台也被现在已解散的政府效率部 (DOGE) 使用，并且正在被移民和海关执法局、国务院、国土安全部和国税局使用。Palantir 在第一季度来自美国政府合同的收入为 6.87 亿美元，比去年同期增长了 84%。
而且，其商业业务的增长速度更快。Palantir 的平台帮助公司管理工作流程、库存和供应链，并提供竞争分析。该公司第一季度的美国商业收入为 5.95 亿美元，比去年同期增长了惊人的 133%。在第一季度，Palantir 报告称完成了 206 笔价值超过 100 万美元的交易，其中 47 笔的价值超过 1000 万美元。
Palantir 预计第二季度的收入将在 17.97 亿美元至 18.01 亿美元之间，并将其全年的指导范围从 71.82 亿美元至 71.98 亿美元提高到 76.50 亿美元至 76.62 亿美元。
我怀疑这不会是 Palantir 在 2026 年最后一次提高其指导。
ServiceNow 是一家为 IT 服务管理、客户服务和人力资源提供软件即服务 (SaaS) 的公司。该公司的 AI 平台旨在成为一个一站式解决方案，可以收集数据、分析、提供人工智能驱动的解决方案并采取这些决策。
它也在扩大其影响力。去年底，它完成了对 MoveWorks 的收购，MoveWorks 提供一个使用大型语言模型的代理式 AI 平台，允许用户在他们的业务系统中查找信息并自动化任务。它还收购了网络安全公司 Veza，该公司专门从事身份安全，并购买了 Pyramid Analytics 以扩展其 AI 和自然语言功能。
第一季度的收入为 37.7 亿美元，比去年同期增长 22%。净收入为 4.69 亿美元，或每股 0.45 美元。然而，由于中东地区与客户的预期交易被持续的军事冲突推迟，本季度的订阅收入增长放缓。
该公司发布了第二季度的指导方针，预计订阅收入同比增长 22.5%，达到 38.15 亿美元至 38.20 亿美元的范围。
毫无疑问，这两家公司都在上升。而且，我不认为影响 ServiceNow 的全球不利因素会成为一个长期的难题。但 ServiceNow 的增长无法与 Palantir 面前的巨大机遇相比。该公司每天都在达成数百万美元的交易，平均每笔交易价值超过 42.62 亿美元，第一季度总合同价值增长了 138%。
换句话说，Palantir 的 2025 年 44.7 亿美元销售额同比增长 56%——巨大的增长。而且，预计今年该公司的收入增长将加速到 72%，随后在 2027 年，营收预计将再增长 44%，达到 111.7 亿美元。
ServiceNow 是一家不错的公司，拥有 2025 年的 21% 收入增长，达到 132.8 亿美元。但与此同时，Palantir 预计今年将实现 22% 的收入增长，2027 年将实现 18.4% 的增长，总计 191.9 亿美元。
这就是为什么 Palantir 股票值得高溢价，在我看来。它仍然是我投资组合的核心持有物，而且很快不会改变。
在您购买 Palantir Technologies 股票之前，请考虑以下几点：
Motley Fool Stock Advisor 分析师团队刚刚确定他们认为投资者现在应该购买的 10 支最佳股票……而 Palantir Technologies 并不是其中之一。这些股票可能会在未来几年产生巨大的回报。
考虑一下当 Netflix 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日被列入此名单时……如果您当时投资了 1,000 美元……您将拥有 471,072 美元！或者当 Nvidia 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日被列入此名单时……如果您当时投资了 1,000 美元……您将拥有 1,303,352 美元！
值得注意的是，Stock Advisor 的总平均回报率为 983%——与标准普尔 500 指数相比，市场表现优于 210%。不要错过最新的前 10 名名单，该名单可使用 Stock Advisor，并加入由个人投资者为个人投资者构建的投资社区。
*Stock Advisor 的回报率截至 2026 年 5 月 29 日。
Patrick Sanders 持有 Palantir Technologies 的股份。The Motley Fool 持有并推荐 Palantir Technologies 和 ServiceNow。The Motley Fool 有一份披露政策。
本文中的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，不一定代表 Nasdaq, Inc. 的观点。
四大领先AI模型讨论这篇文章
"Palantir's valuation assumes perpetual hypergrowth that historical SaaS patterns and competitive AI dynamics make unlikely to materialize without major setbacks."
The article correctly flags Palantir's 72% expected 2026 revenue growth and $4.26B Q1 TCV as exceptional, but ignores that 42x forward sales prices in flawless execution for years. ServiceNow's 6x multiple reflects mature 20%+ growth with 30%+ operating margins and sticky enterprise contracts, while Palantir's commercial segment still faces long sales cycles and potential budget scrutiny in government work. Acquisitions by NOW (MoveWorks, Veza) directly bolster its AI moat without the valuation risk. Historical software multiples show compression once growth drops below 30%.
If Palantir sustains 40%+ growth into 2028 with expanding margins and wins additional defense programs of record, the premium could prove justified as the market rerates it toward other high-growth AI platforms.
"A 42x forward P/S is justified only if PLTR sustains 60%+ revenue growth for 3+ years; the article provides no margin of safety if growth even moderates to 40%."
The article conflates growth rate with valuation merit—a classic trap. Yes, PLTR's 72% expected 2026 revenue growth crushes NOW's 22%, but the 42x forward P/S already prices in that acceleration. The real question: does PLTR's growth sustain at 44% CAGR through 2027, or does it normalize? ServiceNow's 6x P/S on 22% growth implies a 3.7x PEG ratio; PLTR at 42x P/S on 72% growth implies a 2.3x PEG—better, but only if execution holds. The article ignores profitability: PLTR was unprofitable until recently; NOW generates $469M quarterly net income. Government concentration risk (PLTR's $687M Q1 revenue, 54% of total) also goes unmentioned—policy shifts or budget cuts could crater guidance.
PLTR's government revenue growth of 84% YoY is unsustainable if Maven becomes 'official program of record'—that actually signals maturation and slower incremental growth, not acceleration. Meanwhile, NOW's Middle East deal delays are temporary headwinds, not structural.
"Palantir's current valuation of 42x forward sales creates an asymmetric downside risk that ignores the inherent volatility of lumpy, project-based government revenue."
The article presents a classic growth-at-any-price trap. While Palantir (PLTR) is seeing impressive momentum in U.S. commercial adoption and government contract expansion, a 42x forward P/S ratio is detached from historical software valuation norms. Even with 72% projected growth, the margin for error is razor-thin; any deceleration in AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) adoption or a contraction in government spending will lead to a brutal multiple compression. ServiceNow (NOW) offers a more durable, predictable compounding story at 6x forward sales. Investors are essentially choosing between a high-beta, speculative growth play and a mature, enterprise-essential platform with clearer path-to-profitability metrics.
If Palantir successfully transitions into the 'operating system' for the entire U.S. defense apparatus, the 42x multiple may actually be a discount relative to its future total addressable market.
"Palantir’s extreme forward-sales valuation depends on highly leverageable government-driven growth that is vulnerable to budget volatility and deal timing; any deceleration could trigger sharp multiple compression."
The piece highlights Palantir at 42x forward sales versus ServiceNow at 6x, but a high multiple isn’t evidence of safety—it's a hedge on extremely optimistic growth. Palantir’s moat depends on volatile government funding and multi-year deals that can stretch, delay, or disappoint. Maven’s status as an official program of record is not guaranteed to scale across DoD branches, and commercial growth, while rapid, may slow as AI adoption matures in enterprise clients. The article glosses over profitability, margins, and the risk that the growth path accelerates only if AI-driven adoption remains robust. All told, the upside hinges on a perfect storm of defense budgets and aggressive deal closes, not a given outcome.
Bull case: Palantir could secure durable, multi-year funding from expanding Maven deployments and broader government use, driving stickier revenue and potentially re-rating the stock even from a high base.
"PLTR's smaller revenue base plus rate sensitivity creates faster multiple compression risk than PEG ratios suggest."
Claude's PEG framing treats the growth rates as directly comparable, but ignores base effects: PLTR's 72% must scale from far smaller absolute revenue than NOW's 22%, making the implied multiple sustainability fragile. A clearer risk is macro-driven compression—rising rates hit high-multiple, lower-margin growth names like PLTR harder than NOW's cash-flow positive profile, independent of Maven or AIP execution.
"Maven as program of record may accelerate revenue but doesn't necessarily expand addressable market—a critical distinction the panel hasn't resolved."
Grok's base-effect critique is sharp, but it actually strengthens Claude's PEG math rather than weakening it. If PLTR's 72% growth is harder to sustain from a larger base, that argues for *faster* multiple compression, not slower. The real gap: nobody's quantified how much Maven scaling actually expands TAM versus just consolidating existing government spend. That distinction determines whether 42x is priced for new markets or just faster penetration of existing ones.
"Palantir's valuation metrics are misleading because they fail to account for the massive impact of stock-based compensation on true shareholder value."
Claude, your PEG math is flawed because it treats PLTR’s growth as linear. You’re ignoring stock-based compensation (SBC), which remains a massive drag on PLTR’s GAAP profitability compared to NOW’s mature margins. At 42x sales, you aren't just paying for growth; you're paying for a future where SBC becomes a rounding error. If that dilution doesn't stabilize, the 'value' you see in the PEG ratio is an illusion created by ignoring the dilution of shareholder equity.
"DoD budget volatility and uncertain Maven scaling pose bigger downside risks than SBC dilution, potentially driving multiple compression even with high growth."
Gemini overplays SBC as the alpha in valuation. Yes, dilution matters, but the bigger, underappreciated risk is DoD budget cyclicality and Maven’s actual scale. A few large awards or a delay in program-of-record funding can crush revenue visibility for years, hardly captured by a 72% growth trajectory. A 42x forward sales multiple is priced for near-perfect execution; any lag in government demand or policy shifts could trigger brutal multiple compression.
The panelists collectively express bearish sentiments towards Palantir (PLTR) due to its high valuation, reliance on government funding, and potential compression of growth multiples.
None explicitly stated
High valuation and reliance on government funding