Von Maksym Misichenko · CNBC ·
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Panelists generally agreed that Costco's strong Q3 results were driven by a one-time gas volume surge, with uncertain sustainability. They debated the stock's premium valuation, with some arguing it's justified by membership growth and others questioning its durability.
Risiko: Gas volume normalization and potential margin pressure from tariffs
Chance: Potential conversion of new gas customers to high-margin private-label buyers
Diese Analyse wird vom StockScreener-Pipeline generiert — vier führende LLM (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) erhalten identische Prompts mit integrierten Anti-Halluzinations-Schutzvorrichtungen. Methodik lesen →
Costco Wholesale gab am Donnerstag bekannt, dass es im dritten Quartal seines Geschäftsjahres „rekordhohe Volumina“ für Benzin verzeichnete, inmitten steigender Kraftstoffpreise.
CEO Ron Vachris sagte, die letzten fünf Wochen des Quartals, das am 10. Mai endete, seien Costcos bisher beste fünf Volumenwochen gewesen, da Kunden nach günstigerem Benzin inmitten des Krieges im Nahen Osten suchten.
„Vor dem Hintergrund anhaltender makroökonomischer Unsicherheit liegt unser Fokus darauf, Waren und Dienstleistungen von Qualität zu den niedrigsten möglichen Preisen anzubieten“, sagte Vachris in einem Gespräch mit Analysten.
Das Unternehmen gab auch an, dass es im Laufe des Quartals erstmalig Mitglieder in seinen Tankstellen sah.
„Wir glauben, dass dies in Zukunft zu einer noch größeren Loyalität dieser Mitglieder führen wird, da Mitglieder, die unsere Tankstellen nutzen, in der Regel mehr bei uns im Lagerhaus ausgeben“, sagte er.
Die Aussagen kamen, als Costco einen Anstieg des Nettoumsatzes für sein drittes Quartal des Geschäftsjahres meldete, der die Erwartungen der Wall Street für den Zeitraum übertraf.
Das Unternehmen meldete einen Nettoumsatz von 69,15 Milliarden US-Dollar, ein Anstieg von 11,6 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Es gab an, dass die bereinigten vergleichbaren Verkäufe um 6,6 % für das Quartal stiegen, wobei die digitalen Verkäufe um fast 21 % stiegen.
Hier ist, wie Costco im dritten Quartal seines Geschäftsjahres abgeschnitten hat, verglichen mit den Erwartungen der Wall Street, basierend auf einer Umfrage von Analysten von LSEG:
Gewinn pro Aktie: 4,93 $ gegenüber 4,93 $ erwartetUmsatz: 70,53 Milliarden US-Dollar gegenüber 69,81 Milliarden US-Dollar erwartet
Für den dreimonatigen Zeitraum meldete Costco einen Nettogewinn von 2,19 Milliarden US-Dollar oder 4,93 US-Dollar pro Aktie, verglichen mit 1,9 Milliarden US-Dollar oder 4,28 US-Dollar pro Aktie im Vorjahreszeitraum. Der Umsatz stieg auf 70,53 Milliarden US-Dollar von 63,2 Milliarden US-Dollar im Vorjahreszeitraum.
Costco gab an, dass die bezahlten Mitgliedschaften im Laufe des Quartals um 4,1 % gewachsen sind, zusammen mit einem Anstieg der Besucherzahlen auf seiner Website und App um 37 %. Zu den umsatzstärksten Kategorien gehörten Apotheken, Wohnmöbel sowie Gold und Schmuck.
Costco stand nach einer Entscheidung des Obersten Gerichtshofs, der einige der Zölle von Präsident Donald Trump auf Importe aus dem Ausland für ungültig erklärte, im Mittelpunkt eines Zölldisputs mit der Trump-Regierung. Der Einzelhändler hatte zuvor erklärt, er werde seine Preise senken, wenn er nach der Entscheidung des Obersten Gerichtshofs Zollerstattungen erhält.
Vachris sagte am Donnerstag, dass das Unternehmen begonnen hat, Anträge auf Zollerstattungen einzureichen und erwartet, die Rückerstattung für seine genehmigten Anträge in den nächsten Monaten schrittweise zu erhalten. Der Plan ist, diese Gelder in „irgendeiner Form“ an seine Mitglieder zurückzugeben, obwohl diese Details von den tatsächlichen Rückerstattungen abhängen, fügte er hinzu.
„Unser Ziel ist es, zuerst die Preise zu senken und zuletzt zu erhöhen“, sagte Vachris.
Analysten hatten zuvor erwartet, dass das Unternehmen aufgrund seiner günstigeren Benzinpreise und seines Wertangebots, das auf einen preisbewussteren Verbraucher zugeschnitten ist, zu Beginn des Krieges im Nahen Osten eine höhere Nachfrage verzeichnen würde.
Vier führende AI-Modelle diskutieren diesen Artikel
"Gas volume records are a transitory macro artifact unlikely to drive durable re-rating without sustained membership acceleration."
Costco's record gas volumes reflect a one-time surge from Middle East-driven price spikes rather than structural demand, pulling in first-time members who may not sustain warehouse spend. Net sales beat estimates but adjusted comps at 6.6% and 4.1% membership growth look modest against 11.6% revenue growth, while tariff refund timing remains uncertain and could pressure margins if passed through quickly. Digital sales strength (+21%) is a positive offset but does not offset fuel volatility risk.
The gas-driven traffic could convert into sticky high-margin membership renewals and cross-category purchases as the article notes, with pharmacy and home furnishings already showing resilience that outlasts any fuel spike.
"Costco delivered a modest revenue beat on macro tailwinds (cheap gas as traffic driver), but underlying comp growth and membership acceleration don't signal re-acceleration—the stock is pricing in durability of a cyclical demand boost."
Costco's beat is real but narrower than headlines suggest. EPS matched consensus exactly ($4.93), so the upside is revenue ($70.53B vs $69.81B expected) — a ~1% beat, not dramatic. The gas volume story is a demand signal, but gas is a loss leader (Costco caps margins at 35¢/gallon). First-time gas customers converting to warehouse members is valuable, but the article provides zero data on conversion rates or incremental warehouse spend. Comp sales of 6.6% is solid but decelerating from prior quarters. The tariff refund narrative is speculative—timing and magnitude unknown. Membership growth at 4.1% is steady but not accelerating.
Gas-driven traffic may be a one-time macro event (Middle East tensions, fuel price spikes) rather than structural loyalty. If energy prices normalize, the acquisition funnel dries up, and you're left with a retailer growing comps at mid-single digits in a mature market.
"The reliance on low-margin gas sales to drive traffic suggests Costco is prioritizing market share and membership growth over immediate margin expansion in a high-valuation environment."
Costco’s record gas volumes are a double-edged sword. While the 11.6% revenue growth and 21% digital sales spike demonstrate immense brand stickiness, the reliance on gas as a customer acquisition funnel is a margin-dilutive strategy. Gas is a low-margin commodity; using it to drive foot traffic is brilliant for membership growth, but it masks underlying pressure on core retail margins. With EPS hitting exactly the consensus $4.93, there is no 'beat' to justify the stock's premium valuation—currently trading at roughly 45x forward P/E. Investors are paying for perfection, yet the reliance on tariff refunds to potentially subsidize future pricing suggests management is bracing for a more aggressive, price-sensitive consumer environment ahead.
If the gas-led foot traffic successfully converts into high-margin membership renewals and increased basket sizes in non-discretionary categories, the current 'expensive' valuation is justified by superior long-term customer lifetime value.
"Gas-volume strength is likely temporary; durable upside depends on sustained membership growth, online penetration, and margin recovery, not near-term gas demand."
Costco's Q3 release leans on a gas-volume spike amid higher fuel prices, plus membership growth and a strong e-commerce uptick. The headline may signal price-conscious traffic, but it's not clear how durable the gas-driven upside is once prices stabilize. The tariff/refund dynamic adds a potential cash-back tailwind, yet the magnitude and timing are uncertain, and any macro weakness could curb discretionary spend even at Costco. Importantly, the stock's core earnings drivers—membership retention, online penetration, and margin discipline—will determine how the quarterly beat translates into multiple expansion. Absent clarity on refunds and gas-margin sustainability, the upside is not guaranteed.
The spike could be temporary; if gas prices retreat or tariff refunds prove smaller than anticipated, COST could disappoint despite the headline gas story.
"Costco's premium valuation risks compression without evidence of gas customer conversion into members."
While Gemini highlights the 45x forward P/E as pricing in perfection, this ignores Costco's track record of expanding multiples during growth phases driven by membership. The 4.1% membership growth is steady but if gas customers don't convert at scale, as no data shows, the premium could compress. Connecting to Claude's point on exact EPS match, any margin pressure from tariffs passing through would exacerbate valuation concerns in a maturing retailer.
"Historical multiple expansion doesn't apply when underlying growth metrics are decelerating, not accelerating."
Grok's defense of the 45x multiple hinges on 'track record of expanding multiples during growth phases'—but that's circular reasoning. Costco's historical multiple expansion occurred when comps were double-digit and membership growth accelerated. Today, 6.6% comps and 4.1% membership growth don't match that profile. The gas-driven traffic is a one-time acquisition event, not proof of structural re-rating. Until we see incremental warehouse basket size or renewal rate data, the valuation premium is speculative, not earned.
"Costco's membership-fee model provides a valuation floor that justifies a premium multiple regardless of short-term comp deceleration."
Claude, your focus on decelerating comps is correct, but you're missing the 'Costco Effect' on operating leverage. Even with mid-single-digit comp growth, Costco’s membership-fee-driven model creates a floor for earnings that most retailers lack. The 45x P/E isn't just about growth; it’s about the safety premium in a volatile macro environment. If gas-driven traffic converts even 15% of new members to high-margin private-label 'Kirkland Signature' buyers, the valuation is defensible, not speculative.
"Gas-driven traffic can boost memberships, but without durable non-gas basket growth data, a 45x multiple is not justified."
I’ll push back on Gemini’s gas-led upside defense. Even if new members convert, the lack of data on incremental spend per member and non-gas basket growth means the 'defensibility' of the 45x P/E is wishful thinking. The model hinges on durable membership value, premium private-label sales, and sustained mix shift; without those, gas traffic is a temporary stimulus. If gas normalization arrives, the stock re-prices.
Panelists generally agreed that Costco's strong Q3 results were driven by a one-time gas volume surge, with uncertain sustainability. They debated the stock's premium valuation, with some arguing it's justified by membership growth and others questioning its durability.
Potential conversion of new gas customers to high-margin private-label buyers
Gas volume normalization and potential margin pressure from tariffs