HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited

NYSE · Metals & Mining
$16.09
Price · Jul 2, 2026
52W Range
$13–$26
26% of range
Analyst Rating
BUY
11 analysts
Price Target
$23
+43% upside
P/E (TTM)
—
ROE
—
Net Profit Margin
—

HMY Stock Snapshot Price, market cap, P/E, EPS, ROE, debt/equity, 52-week range

Price
$16.09
Market Cap
—
P/E (TTM)
—
EPS (TTM)
—
Revenue (TTM)
—
Div Yield
—
ROE
—
Debt/Equity
—
52W Range
$13 – $26

HMY Stock Price Chart Daily OHLCV with technical indicators — pan, zoom, and customize your view

10-Year Performance Revenue, net income, margins and EPS trends

Revenue & Net Income —
EPS —
Free Cash Flow —
Margins —

Valuation P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA ratios — is the stock expensive or cheap?

Metric
5Y trend
HMY
Peer Median

Profitability Gross, operating and net margins; ROE, ROA, ROIC

Metric
5Y trend
HMY
Peer Median

Financial Health Debt, liquidity, solvency — balance sheet strength

Metric
5Y trend
HMY
Peer Median

Growth Revenue, EPS and net income growth: YoY, 3Y CAGR, 5Y CAGR

Metric
5Y trend
HMY
Peer Median

Per Share Metrics EPS, book value per share, cash flow per share, dividend per share

Metric
5Y trend
HMY
Peer Median

Capital Efficiency Asset turnover, inventory turnover, receivables turnover

Metric
5Y trend
HMY
Peer Median

Dividends Yield, payout ratio, dividend history, 5Y CAGR

Dividend Yield
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Payout Ratio
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5Y Div CAGR
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Ex-dateAmount
April 24, 2026$0.3120
April 11, 2025$0.1200
Oct. 11, 2024$0.0520
April 11, 2024$0.0780
Oct. 12, 2023$0.0400
Oct. 13, 2022$0.0130
April 7, 2022$0.0260
Oct. 14, 2021$0.0190
April 15, 2021$0.0730
Oct. 12, 2017$0.0270
March 15, 2017$0.0380
Sept. 14, 2016$0.0370
March 6, 2013$0.0560
Sept. 12, 2012$0.0610
March 7, 2012$0.0530
Sept. 14, 2011$0.0840
Sept. 15, 2010$0.0690
Sept. 16, 2009$0.0640
Sept. 1, 2004$0.0460
March 3, 2004$0.0560

HMY Analyst Consensus Bullish and bearish analyst opinions, 12-month price target, upside

BUY 11 analysts
  • Strong Buy 2 18.2%
  • Buy 7 63.6%
  • Hold 2 18.2%
  • Sell 0 0.0%
  • Strong Sell 0 0.0%

12-Month Price Target

3 analysts · 2026-06-30
Median target $22.00 +36.7%
Mean target $23.01 +43.0%

Earnings History EPS actual vs estimate, surprise %, beat rate, next earnings date

Avg Surprise
-0.31%
Period EPS Actual EPS Est Surprise
Dec. 31, 2015 $0.17 $0.38 -0.21%
Sept. 30, 2015 $-1.20 $-0.40 -0.80%
June 30, 2015 $0.44 $-0.28 0.72%
March 31, 2015 $-0.60 $0.36 -0.96%

HMY AI Analyst Panel — Bullish and Bearish Views 2026Q2 debate: Claude, Grok, Gemini, ChatGPT on the stock's prospects

Round 1 — Opening Takes

Grok NEUTRAL 0.75
↑ Bullish

Harmony Gold is becoming a high-octane gold profit engine if prices stabilize above recent highs into 2026Q2. EPS TTM has rocketed to 25.75, up sharply from 15.43 last quarter—this surge shows mines are now gushing cash from better yields or cost discipline. ROE hit 32.51%, proving they leverage equity into outsized returns that crush typical miners in a strong gold cycle. At 10.6 times earnings, the P/E screams undervalued for this earnings momentum.

↓ Bearish

Harmony Gold crumbles if gold falters or costs balloon, given its thin liquidity safety net. Current ratio sits at 0.54, signaling potential cash squeezes to cover near-term obligations without dipping into debt. The share price has slid from 18.65 highs to 14.62 closes with volatile volume, betraying fading investor conviction. P/B ratio fell to 3.22, underscoring market skepticism on book value holding up amid operational risks.

Claude NEUTRAL 0.62
↑ Bullish

Harmony is printing cash at a scale that mining peers rarely sustain. The EPS jumped from $15.43 to $25.75 year-over-year — a 67% surge — while net margins expanded to 20%, which tells you either gold prices are lifting all boats or Harmony is executing cost discipline that sticks. The P/E of 10.6 is a floor-level valuation for a miner with a 32.5% ROE, meaning the market is pricing in zero upside from here. If gold stays bid into 2026, this stock has room to re-rate.

↓ Bearish

The balance sheet is a red flag I can't ignore. Current ratio of 0.54 means Harmony has 54 cents of liquid assets for every dollar of short-term obligations — that's a liquidity squeeze, not a minor twitch. Mining is cyclical, and when gold rolls over, that weak cash position becomes a liability trap fast. The stock fell from $18.61 to $14.62 in three months, which suggests the market is already pricing in duration risk. Without a clear path to deleveraging, this is a timing bet masquerading as a value play.

Gemini NEUTRAL 0.75
↑ Bullish

Harmony Gold is currently printing cash at an impressive rate, turning its mining operations into a highly efficient profit engine. The company is generating a 32.51% return on equity. This means that for every dollar shareholders have invested, the company is generating over 32 cents in profit, signaling high capital efficiency. With a trailing gross margin of 36.53%, the firm is successfully keeping its production costs well below the current market price of gold. This wide cushion provides significant protection against potential volatility in gold prices, making the stock a compelling play for those betting on continued margin expansion.

↓ Bearish

The company is operating with a dangerously thin liquidity buffer that leaves it vulnerable to any operational disruptions. Its current ratio sits at just 0.54. This indicates that the company has significantly more short-term liabilities than liquid assets, which could force them to take on expensive debt if a crisis hits. Furthermore, the stock is trading at a price-to-book ratio of 3.22. This premium suggests that the market is already pricing in a high level of future growth, leaving very little room for error if gold prices soften or production targets are missed.

Chatgpt NEUTRAL 0.58
↑ Bullish

I think Harmony has a bullish setup if the improving profitability persists and the stock remains reasonably priced. ROE TTM: 32.51%. That shows Harmony is turning a lot of equity into profit, a sign of efficient capital use in a capital-heavy miner. EPS TTM: 25.7466. That rising earnings power underpins higher per-share value and potential for dividends. P/E TTM: 10.6136. That low multiple suggests room for upside if the earnings trend holds.

↓ Bearish

I think the bearish case rests on liquidity risk and potential capex-led pressure that could derail the momentum. Current ratio: 0.5419. That below-1 reading signals near-term liquidity stress if working capital needs rise. PS_TTM: 2.1286. A modest sales multiple means the market isn’t pricing much growth; any revenue pullback could compress the multiple. Market cap: 172,747. That flat market cap suggests little upgrade in investor expectations; if fundamentals slip, the stock may lack a cushion to re-rate.

Round 2 — Responses & Rebuttals

Grok

Claude, your bearish take frames the 0.54 current ratio as a liquidity trap, but that misses their rock-bottom debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25 from last quarter. Such low leverage means Harmony can easily bridge short-term gaps with cheap financing rather than distress selling assets. In a gold upcycle with 20% net margins fueling cash, this isn't a balance sheet crisis—it's a nitpick on a profit machine.

Claude

I need to push back on Grok's read of that EPS surge. Grok, you're calling the $15.43 to $25.75 jump a sign of operational excellence, but look at the ROE data: it was 0.3251 last quarter—that's 32.51% expressed as a decimal in the raw data—which means the prior-quarter comparison is apples-to-oranges noise, not a clean earnings beat. The real story is gold prices, not cost discipline. If Harmony was actually executing structural cost cuts, we'd see gross margin stability or better, but it jumped from 39% to 36.5%, which is backwards. That EPS pop is leverage on commodity tailwinds, not moat-building. When gold rolls, that evaporates fast.

Gemini

Claude, your point about the liquidity squeeze is the most critical risk factor here, but I think you are underestimating the operational reality of that 0.54 current ratio. In the mining sector, a ratio below 1.0 is often a deliberate choice to maximize free cash flow for aggressive expansion rather than a sign of insolvency. However, if Harmony does not convert that capital into production growth by 2026Q2, that thin buffer will become a trap. We are essentially betting on their ability to outrun their own debt obligations.

Chatgpt

Claude, your liquidity concern is real, but Harmony's profitability trajectory gives it wiggle room. ROE TTM is 32.51%. That means the company is turning equity into profits at a high rate, which supports the case for upside if cash flows stay strong. But the liquidity position is thin, and if gold headlines volatility or capex needs rise, Harmony could see funding pressure.

Round 3 — Final Rebuttals

G
Grok

Gemini, I agree with your take on the current ratio—Claude, in gold mining, 0.54 is often intentional to free up cash for drilling new ounces rather than hoarding liquidity. That strategy shines when gold holds firm, as it converts ops into FCF without the drag of excess working capital. Pair it with Harmony's 0.25 debt-to-equity from last quarter, and they have cheap debt access if needed, turning balance sheet efficiency into a competitive edge over hoarder peers.

C
Claude

I want to push back on Grok's leverage argument, because the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25 last quarter doesn't tell the full story when you're sitting on a 0.54 current ratio. Yes, low absolute leverage looks safe in isolation, but what matters in a commodity downturn is whether you can service obligations without forced asset sales—and Harmony can't, not with 54 cents of liquid assets per dollar of near-term debt. Grok, you're treating the balance sheet as static, but mining is cyclical. When gold rolls and cash flow compresses, that 0.25 D/E ratio becomes irrelevant if you can't meet payroll or maintenance capex. The real risk isn't today's profitability—it's the speed at which this flips if gold retreats even 10% from here.

G
Gemini

Grok, I have to challenge your dismissal of the liquidity issue by citing the debt-to-equity ratio. While a 0.25 D/E ratio suggests they have room to borrow, that metric only measures long-term solvency, not the immediate cash crunch Claude and I are worried about. A current ratio of 0.54 means they have 54 cents of liquid assets for every dollar of near-term bills; that is a structural mismatch that no amount of long-term debt capacity can fix if a mine goes offline tomorrow. We are looking at a cash-flow timing risk that your leverage argument simply ignores.

C
Chatgpt

I think the next leg for Harmony hinges more on macro and regulatory dynamics than on quarterly ratios. Claude, Grok, Gemini, a stronger dollar and a potential shift in global gold demand can swing gold miners even when earnings look solid. South Africa's energy reforms and mining royalties could reshape cash flow and capex needs, acting as a bigger lever than Harmony's latest margin improvement. If those macro/regulatory tailwinds reverse, Harmony could still hold up given profitability, but the upside would depend on policy stability and gold price trajectories.

Price Forecasts

Model 3M Target 6M Target Reasoning
G Grok 3M Target $17.50 6M Target $21.00 Reasoning I see Harmony Gold re-rating to 13-15x earnings over the next six months as its profit engine proves durable in a stable gold market. The key catalyst is the 2025Q4 earnings print in late January 2026, where EPS holding above $25 confirms cost discipline amid high gold prices. The big risk is a gold selloff below $2,300/oz triggered by aggressive Fed cuts stalling. At today's 10.6 P/E, investors pay for just one year of earnings despite 32.5% ROE signaling multi-year compounding—fair value at 14x hits $21 on this trajectory.
C Claude 3M Target $16.80 6M Target $17.50 Reasoning Harmony is a commodity-levered cash generator, not a structural compounder—gold prices, not management, drive returns here. My thesis: the stock re-rates modestly if gold holds $2,400+ through Q3 2025, but the liquidity squeeze (0.54 current ratio) caps upside and forces a sell-off if gold retreats 8–10% or South African operational disruptions hit. Catalyst: Q3 2025 earnings print showing sustained 20%+ net margins and no capex surprises. Risk: gold slides below $2,300 or load-shedding forces unplanned mine downtime. At 10.6x trailing earnings on a 32.5% ROE, Harmony trades at a discount to peers, but that discount exists because the balance sheet can't absorb a commodity shock. I'm holding my hold—the upside is real if macro cooperates, but the downside is faster.
G Gemini 3M Target $16.25 6M Target $17.50 Reasoning My thesis is that Harmony will re-rate higher as the market realizes their aggressive capital allocation is a deliberate strategy for growth rather than a sign of distress. The primary catalyst is the 2026Q3 production update; if they report increased yields from new mining blocks, the market will stop punishing their low liquidity. The central risk is a sudden spike in energy costs in South Africa, which would instantly compress their 36.53% gross margin. This margin tells us that Harmony is currently keeping over a third of its revenue after production costs, which is the engine driving their ability to fund operations without hoarding cash. I am betting they maintain this efficiency while gold prices remain elevated.
C Chatgpt 3M Target $16.00 6M Target $17.50 Reasoning I think Harmony can drift higher from around $15 now if earnings stay healthy and gold stays bid. Catalyst: the upcoming earnings print showing sustained margin resilience would push the stock higher. Risk: a sustained gold price pullback or liquidity stress could trigger a re-rating lower. P/E is around 10.6x. That low multiple, given a high ROE, implies the market is pricing modest upside and needs gold stability to deliver higher returns.

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